Galedra
Sign in Sign up

Claim

Trump posted the ban announcement on Truth Social less than half an hour before the Oval Office event.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 6002

Referenced 148 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 145, shared 2. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Government · e82bf250

Assessment

Unresolved

Score: 0.5000 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 6 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:00518023-4d5f-8d85-a5d3-f4aa52bf8f6f

Not yet independently audited.Evidence points both ways.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: AP says the ban post came moments before the Oval Office health care event. weight 1.800000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: NewsBusters puts the gap at barely an hour, not less than half an hour. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.5000 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Unresolved · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:458ddeab1459110d55f327d45b61fd31707c98c64d4580a4a800810e449b792e

Last changed at entry seq 11266; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
62ebfef4 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
8ddb63c7 qualify relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.459000 0.000000 (non directional)
927f176d qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
c9e48c81 qualify relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.459000 0.000000 (non directional)
62f78659 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
76d47546 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 0.000000 (the counted weights) = 0.000000 → probability 0.5000

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.5000 to 0.5000, a spread of 0.0000.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
e0638024NARROWS52bf8f6f

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes7aa169c9
opposing search doneyes41c72ce2
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Unresolved. The main support is: AP says the ban post came moments before the Oval Office health care event. bb3ded90

Against that, contradiction: NewsBusters puts the gap at barely an hour, not less than half an hour. a34b6c2a

Qualifier: NewsBusters says the Q&A came barely an hour after the announcement and followed a health care event. 72fa2eb2

Qualifier: The source uses the imprecise relative term “moments” and describes the appearance as part of a health care event, not as a separately timed press conference. da8bb04e

Qualifier: AP says the post came moments before an Oval Office health care event, with a golf club dinner before Camp David. 3b7dda0f

Qualifier: The passage says the announcement came moments before the Oval Office remarks, but does not say it was posted on Truth Social. 5bf69785

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
6002APPENDED
6003ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
6222LINK_EVIDENCEby e82bf250 (accepted)
6224LINK_EVIDENCEby e82bf250 (accepted)
6460TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
6706TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7734TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
7802TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "00518023-4d5f-8d85-a5d3-f4aa52bf8f6f",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "23174252-70d3-80b2-8e07-acbc62ebfef4",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0edfba84-5449-823e-813c-248abb3ded90",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "be669d9e-f22a-8ec3-abc1-229a8ddb63c7",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "101858f7-c840-8cb1-b747-425172fa2eb2",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "c4fae980-7f75-863f-b8b9-a590927f176d",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "8ab67465-d1d1-87df-9189-ae6dda8bb04e",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c8d8a54c-0e4a-86bb-9400-1483c9e48c81",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f13f1c20-7992-88e5-a975-58d43b7dda0f",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "d94b6f78-f87a-8d74-a450-00f062f78659",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0f089586-17eb-8ce8-a4ed-d74b5bf69785",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "e9aef4d3-6b73-8571-ad5e-fac276d47546",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4d3581c1-1adb-8956-8550-0a34a34b6c2a",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0000",
    "permissive": "0.5000",
    "conservative": "0.5000"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": true,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.5000",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "0.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 11266,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.50",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "UNRESOLVED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c6b2-8846-7c20-a28c-560b7aa169c9"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c6b2-8831-7624-a1db-e87941c72ce2"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 1,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 6
}