Claim

In the five-Tohoku-prefecture dataset, bear conflict rises sharply when mast production falls below a threshold.

Type CAUSAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 21687

Referenced 112 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 84, shared 27. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Wildlife · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Leans supported

Score: 0.6413 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability LOW

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:023394fc-4cb7-836e-82a6-6cc1dc418c00

Not yet independently audited.Evidence points both ways.This assessment depends heavily on modeling choices.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports a sharp conflict increase below a mast threshold and additional amplification when an alternative food source also fails. weight 1.800000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: An earlier Tohoku study found a significant beechnut-failure correlation in five of seven zones, indicating spatial heterogeneity rather than a uniform relationship. weight 0.600000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports an 18-year dataset across five Tohoku prefectures and states that bear conflict rises sharply once mast production falls below a threshold.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.6413 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Leans supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability LOW · 4 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:084807934e828b3baef847583566a6db65041fb185a151c9883a6dd590316754

Last changed at entry seq 25241; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
3455789d support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 11ff6330)
11ff6330 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
950b8313 contradict	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.600000	0.600000
8ac399ab qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.35 → log-odds -0.619039 + 1.200000 (the counted weights) = 0.580961 → probability 0.6413

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.5550 to 0.7193, a spread of 0.1643.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“An 18-year analysis of five Tohoku prefectures linked Japan's bear-conflict surge to mast failure interacting with failures of an alternative food source.” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary study reports a sharp conflict increase below a mast threshold and additional amplification when an alternative food source also fails.

From Compound food failure on a deteriorated mast system drives Japan’s bear conflict crisis Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly reports the threshold relationship in the five-prefecture dataset.
The excerpt directly reports an 18-year dataset across five Tohoku prefectures and states that bear conflict rises sharply once mast production falls below a threshold.

From Compound food failure on a deteriorated mast system drives Japan’s bear conflict crisis Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage exactly supports the dataset scope and threshold relationship.

Evidence against

An earlier Tohoku study found a significant beechnut-failure correlation in five of seven zones, indicating spatial heterogeneity rather than a uniform relationship.

From Relationship between Changes in Beechnut Production and Asiatic Black Bears in Northern Japan Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

The earlier regional study found the correlation in only five of seven zones, which limits broad generalization of a sharp mast threshold across all areas.

Qualifications

The study’s threshold finding is based on an 18-year dataset across five Tohoku prefectures, with a post-2006 breakpoint.

From Compound food failure on a deteriorated mast system drives Japan’s bear conflict crisis Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The explicit 18-year window and breakpoint constrain the temporal scope of the threshold relationship.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
a9bffaa6		11ff6330

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	3455789d, 11ff6330, 950b8313, 8ac399ab

Summary

Leans supported. The main support is: The primary study reports a sharp conflict increase below a mast threshold and additional amplification when an alternative food source also fails. 14a1654b

Against that, contradiction: An earlier Tohoku study found a significant beechnut-failure correlation in five of seven zones, indicating spatial heterogeneity rather than a uniform relationship. 0b5a23c9

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. a9bffaa6

Qualifier: The study’s threshold finding is based on an 18-year dataset across five Tohoku prefectures, with a post-2006 breakpoint. e85d4af0

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 60bf0a84

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:023394fc-4cb7-836e-82a6-6cc1dc418c00

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
21687	APPENDED
21688	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
21697	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23923	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24945	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25238	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "023394fc-4cb7-836e-82a6-6cc1dc418c00",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "6bd452ae-28e2-8800-aea8-66b111ff6330",
      "link": "53d3f057-3208-8afc-bb78-c14c3455789d",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d938ba8b-5e67-882b-8a32-9230a9bffaa6",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "6bd452ae-28e2-8800-aea8-66b111ff6330",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d57ae16b-ff17-8d06-befd-a4ac14a1654b",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "b78b2453-04a0-8e7d-a550-e3a4950b8313",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "c4a54123-66e9-8868-9209-ede70b5a23c9",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "0.600000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.600000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "cf6db1e2-3bd9-8f70-b5f6-29368ac399ab",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "c08366f5-6a3a-899d-a020-d950e85d4af0",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.35",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1643",
    "permissive": "0.7193",
    "conservative": "0.5550"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": true,
  "stability": "LOW",
  "claim_type": "CAUSAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.6413",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.200000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25241,
  "prior_log_odds": "-0.619039",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": true,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "53d3f057-3208-8afc-bb78-c14c3455789d",
        "6bd452ae-28e2-8800-aea8-66b111ff6330",
        "b78b2453-04a0-8e7d-a550-e3a4950b8313",
        "cf6db1e2-3bd9-8f70-b5f6-29368ac399ab"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 1,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "0.580961",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}