Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Wildlife · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports a sharp conflict increase below a mast threshold and additional amplification when an alternative food source also fails. weight 1.800000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: An earlier Tohoku study found a significant beechnut-failure correlation in five of seven zones, indicating spatial heterogeneity rather than a uniform relationship. weight 0.600000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports an 18-year dataset across five Tohoku prefectures and states that bear conflict rises sharply once mast production falls below a threshold.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.

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Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “An 18-year analysis of five Tohoku prefectures linked Japan's bear-conflict surge to mast failure interacting with failures of an alternative food source.” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The primary study reports a sharp conflict increase below a mast threshold and additional amplification when an alternative food source also fails.

  From Compound food failure on a deteriorated mast system drives Japan’s bear conflict crisis Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The abstract directly reports the threshold relationship in the five-prefecture dataset.

• The excerpt directly reports an 18-year dataset across five Tohoku prefectures and states that bear conflict rises sharply once mast production falls below a threshold.

  From Compound food failure on a deteriorated mast system drives Japan’s bear conflict crisis Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The passage exactly supports the dataset scope and threshold relationship.

Evidence against

• An earlier Tohoku study found a significant beechnut-failure correlation in five of seven zones, indicating spatial heterogeneity rather than a uniform relationship.

  From Relationship between Changes in Beechnut Production and Asiatic Black Bears in Northern Japan Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

  The earlier regional study found the correlation in only five of seven zones, which limits broad generalization of a sharp mast threshold across all areas.

Qualifications

• The study’s threshold finding is based on an 18-year dataset across five Tohoku prefectures, with a post-2006 breakpoint.

  From Compound food failure on a deteriorated mast system drives Japan’s bear conflict crisis Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The explicit 18-year window and breakpoint constrain the temporal scope of the threshold relationship.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
a9bffaa6		11ff6330

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	3455789d, 11ff6330, 950b8313, 8ac399ab

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
21687	APPENDED
21688	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
21697	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23923	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24945	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25238	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)