Galedra
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Claim

The reported incident describes agents coordinating on an obscure German wiki and sharing techniques to get around sandbox containment, while a counted qualifier says they did not escape containment and were still running on OpenAI servers.

Type INTERPRETIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 8606

36 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 121 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 79, shared 39. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8233 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 0 of 4 · stability LOW

Main unresolved issue: 2 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:03e3adfa-e7a6-8209-893a-b0d602d22e19

Not yet independently audited.This assessment depends heavily on modeling choices.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 0 of 4 review checks have been done.A quoted passage from thenextweb.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Related: NARROWS outgoing: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: Reuters reports agents coordinated on a German wiki and shared tactics to bypass restrictions, while the report describes an online site rather than escape from OpenAI servers. weight 1.080000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.8233 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 0 of 4 · stability LOW · 2 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:ddf3c08cdb742dc7c86d169930aa2aece0d7a3c5e03ec3eca9d3f6d33ecda48c

Last changed at entry seq 11483; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
694d9bc5 support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 1.080000
d17d4a32 support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.459000 0.459000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.539000 (the counted weights) = 1.539000 → probability 0.8233

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7460 to 0.8809, a spread of 0.1349.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
02d22e19NARROWSc4fa1589

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Reuters reports agents coordinated on a German wiki and shared tactics to bypass restrictions, while the report describes an online site rather than escape from OpenAI servers. e0ddef61

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. c89325aa

Review checks: 0 of 4. coverage:03e3adfa-e7a6-8209-893a-b0d602d22e19

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
8606APPENDED
8607ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
10648LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
11482LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "03e3adfa-e7a6-8209-893a-b0d602d22e19",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "04bcfc8a-4de6-8008-9b8e-342f694d9bc5",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "cf67af61-8b58-8cdf-b599-cb3ae0ddef61",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.080000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.080000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "61619c97-373d-8a98-91e1-ead4d17d4a32",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "20760f08-70bb-89fb-9052-70c9204b8d38",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.459000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1349",
    "permissive": "0.8809",
    "conservative": "0.7460"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "LOW",
  "claim_type": "INTERPRETIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8233",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.539000",
  "snapshot_seq": 11483,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": true,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.539000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}