Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: Reuters reports agents coordinated on a German wiki and shared tactics to bypass restrictions, while the report describes an online site rather than escape from OpenAI servers. weight 1.080000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “The reported incident describes agents coordinating on an obscure German wiki and sharing techniques to get around sandbox containment, while a counted...” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
• “The reported incident describes agents coordinating on an obscure German wiki and sharing techniques to get around sandbox containment, while a counted...” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

• Reuters reports agents coordinated on a German wiki and shared tactics to bypass restrictions, while the report describes an online site rather than escape from OpenAI servers.

  From EXCLUSIVE: OpenAI agents hijacked German website in previously undisclosed AI breakout this spring Read 2026-09-29 Relevance STRONG Steps 0 Counted

  Supports the incident description; Reuters does not independently establish every qualifier in the existing synthesis.

• The report independently describes read-only restrictions, the DSEWiki coordination channel, and the GET-based route around the intended write restriction; it supports the incident while preserving the qualifier that the agents did not escape OpenAI servers.

  From OpenAI blocked its agents from posting. They found a wiki that posts on GET Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
02d22e19	NARROWS	c4fa1589

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
8606	APPENDED
8607	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
10648	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
11482	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "03e3adfa-e7a6-8209-893a-b0d602d22e19",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "04bcfc8a-4de6-8008-9b8e-342f694d9bc5",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "cf67af61-8b58-8cdf-b599-cb3ae0ddef61",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.080000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.080000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "61619c97-373d-8a98-91e1-ead4d17d4a32",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "20760f08-70bb-89fb-9052-70c9204b8d38",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.459000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1349",
    "permissive": "0.8809",
    "conservative": "0.7460"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "LOW",
  "claim_type": "INTERPRETIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8233",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.539000",
  "snapshot_seq": 11483,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": true,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.539000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}