Claim

The study estimated that current global carbon-budget calculations may underestimate the ocean carbon sink by 10 ± 5% because they omit rain effects.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 18544

an inference word joins a premise to a conclusion; consider separate claims and an edge

Referenced 136 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 84, shared 49. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Climate · 1efd24fe Earth science · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:051e8836-f71b-8922-8020-b3e2a88ba9ee

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study estimates that omission of rain effects may cause current global carbon-budget estimates to understate the ocean sink by 10 ± 5%. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The study estimates that excluding rain effects causes current global carbon-budget estimates to underestimate the ocean carbon sink by 10 ± 5%.; The primary analysis estimates a 10 ± 5% ocean-sink underestimation from excluding rain effects in global carbon budgets.; The primary analysis estimated that omitted rain effects could account for a 10 ± 5% underestimation of the ocean carbon sink.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 5 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:a9f984e5118aa7c8340459f4c00494639c8719cc02cdff31b4b490be0ecc4187

Last changed at entry seq 24305; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
5b770084 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 6e2154c4)
ceeaaec1 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 02e7ca8f)
6e2154c4 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
02e7ca8f support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
8dd7b94c support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 6e2154c4)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.600000 (the counted weights) = 3.600000 → probability 0.9734

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9255 to 0.9908, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The study estimated that current global carbon-budget calculations may underestimate the ocean carbon sink by 10 ± 5% because they omit rain effects.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“The study estimated that current global carbon-budget calculations may underestimate the ocean carbon sink by 10 ± 5% because they omit rain effects.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A 2026 global analysis found that rain-induced surface-ocean dilution increases estimated ocean carbon uptake and may explain a substantial omission in...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary analysis estimates a 10 ± 5% ocean-sink underestimation from excluding rain effects in global carbon budgets.

From Global carbon dioxide flux into the surface ocean intensified by rain-induced dilution Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary analysis estimate with stated uncertainty.
The primary study estimates that omission of rain effects may cause current global carbon-budget estimates to understate the ocean sink by 10 ± 5%.

From Global carbon dioxide flux into the surface ocean intensified by rain-induced dilution Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary study evidence.
The primary analysis estimated that omitted rain effects could account for a 10 ± 5% underestimation of the ocean carbon sink.

From Global carbon dioxide flux into the surface ocean intensified by rain-induced dilution Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Independent primary source passage.
The passage directly reports a 10 ± 5% ocean-sink underestimation from excluding rain effects.

From Global carbon dioxide flux into the surface ocean intensified by rain-induced dilution Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The excerpt explicitly states the estimate and cause.
The study estimates that excluding rain effects causes current global carbon-budget estimates to underestimate the ocean carbon sink by 10 ± 5%.

From Global carbon dioxide flux into the surface ocean intensified by rain-induced dilution Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
0528c384		6e2154c4
60c5a091		02e7ca8f
d3874ad8		6e2154c4

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	5b770084, ceeaaec1, 6e2154c4, 02e7ca8f, 8dd7b94c

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary study estimates that omission of rain effects may cause current global carbon-budget estimates to understate the ocean sink by 10 ± 5%. 6764a6cf

3 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 0528c38460c5a091d3874ad8

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 177f88e0

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:051e8836-f71b-8922-8020-b3e2a88ba9ee

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
18544	APPENDED
18545	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
18554	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
18973	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
19987	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
20770	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24304	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
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  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
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  "support_groups": 2,
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  "truth_evaluable": true,
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  "review_checklist": {
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