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Claim

In the reported firm-level study, trade frictions, proxied by trade-remedy investigations, were associated with increased corporate social-responsibility engagement.

Type CAUSAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 15413 · qualifiers {"population":"Firms in the reported study","denominator":"Trade-remedy investigations used as a proxy for trade friction"}

a comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 102 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 77, shared 24. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Business · 1efd24fe Policy · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8558 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability LOW

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:0caf6e14-95a6-8e81-9926-afd5245a18cd

Not yet independently audited.This assessment depends heavily on modeling choices.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The study explicitly uses trade-remedy investigations as its trade-friction proxy and reports increased CSR engagement. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports the trade-remedy-investigation proxy and increased CSR engagement finding.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8558 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability LOW · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:4de21e3c632ce89d7e9d33b028724e39717aa6c4bb8f331f25f27a3c8b87cbff

Last changed at entry seq 15550; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
9654bb4e support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
c398bdb7 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.600000 0.600000
28d23dc5 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.600000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept c398bdb7)

prior 0.35 → log-odds -0.619039 + 2.400000 (the counted weights) = 1.780961 → probability 0.8558

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7429 to 0.9242, a spread of 0.1813.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
28b07df2c398bdb7

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes9654bb4e, c398bdb7, 28d23dc5

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The study explicitly uses trade-remedy investigations as its trade-friction proxy and reports increased CSR engagement. e9686871

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 28b07df2

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. a2bf5b97

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:0caf6e14-95a6-8e81-9926-afd5245a18cd

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
15413APPENDED
15414ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
15425LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
15429TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
15549TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "0caf6e14-95a6-8e81-9926-afd5245a18cd",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "8c263f5f-d8b2-8e32-9928-de5a9654bb4e",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "8c3c68e5-9743-8c81-8931-5c72e9686871",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c93b4636-02e4-8a7a-a759-0707c398bdb7",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "73b99387-2ec4-8319-b0d4-aec0aebbd486",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.600000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.600000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "c93b4636-02e4-8a7a-a759-0707c398bdb7",
      "link": "d2352081-1e9c-897a-a210-776128d23dc5",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "839e38e8-95a7-892d-b32e-bcc328b07df2",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.600000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.35",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1813",
    "permissive": "0.9242",
    "conservative": "0.7429"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "LOW",
  "claim_type": "CAUSAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8558",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.400000",
  "snapshot_seq": 15550,
  "prior_log_odds": "-0.619039",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": true,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "8c263f5f-d8b2-8e32-9928-de5a9654bb4e",
        "c93b4636-02e4-8a7a-a759-0707c398bdb7",
        "d2352081-1e9c-897a-a210-776128d23dc5"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.780961",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}