Claim

The Empire State Building is struck by lightning an average of about 23 times per year.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 362

Referenced 171 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 132, shared 38. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Earth science · e554b29d

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9955 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 2 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:14a2f40d-1e00-84e7-9bc7-ee85db4f5907

Not yet independently audited.

Why?

Strongest counted support: NOAA says the Empire State Building is hit about 25 times per year, close to the claimed average of about 23. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio calls the saying a myth and, citing NOAA, gives the Empire State Building at approximately 23 strikes a year.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9955 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:88bceb00cc156fb189dc2af27d74ef000a28728e32136e0f8895549566bfb543

Last changed at entry seq 11259; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
a626f1a7 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
ff150a2f support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
036f5368 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
77528530 support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept ff150a2f)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 5.400000 (the counted weights) = 5.400000 → probability 0.9955

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9777 to 0.9991, a spread of 0.0214.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The Empire State Building is struck by lightning an average of about 23 times per year.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

The US National Weather Service lists "lightning never strikes the same place twice" under myths and states that lightning often strikes the same place repeatedly, especially tall, pointy, isolated objects, giving the Empire State Building at an average of 23 strikes a year.

From Lightning Myths and Facts Read 2026-09-18 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio calls the saying a myth and, citing NOAA, gives the Empire State Building at approximately 23 strikes a year.

From Where Does Lightning Strike? Read 2026-09-18 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

Same NOAA origin as e_nws, so it adds little independent weight; note also that popular sources circulate 25/yr while NWS says 23.
The excerpt states that the Empire State Building is hit by lightning an average of 23 times a year.

From Lightning Myths and Facts Read 2026-09-18 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
NOAA says the Empire State Building is hit about 25 times per year, close to the claimed average of about 23.

From 5 striking facts versus myths about lightning you should know Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Independent federal source supports the approximate annual frequency.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
0f80ad8c	21058f47	ff150a2f

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	e536ef37
opposing search done	yes	b2e95d3c
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	a626f1a7

Summary

Supported. The main support is: NOAA says the Empire State Building is hit about 25 times per year, close to the claimed average of about 23. 713d696d

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 21058f47

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. b2e95d3c

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:14a2f40d-1e00-84e7-9bc7-ee85db4f5907

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
362	APPENDED
363	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
396	LINK_EVIDENCE	by e554b29d (accepted)
398	LINK_EVIDENCE	by e554b29d (accepted)
8834	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
11258	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "14a2f40d-1e00-84e7-9bc7-ee85db4f5907",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "1edece95-764b-853e-a974-ddc5a626f1a7",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "3ad488b4-90ec-8d8f-9bb5-d112713d696d",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "76399264-d05f-82c1-9100-d826ff150a2f",
      "group": "b90f923e-53be-8d15-8265-674b21058f47",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "e00ba64d-293a-8cdc-b6a1-b63c4d80e271",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "a637a2ce-2fee-8424-b832-a5b0036f5368",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "bc784b2c-0e8a-8965-83df-e77c7570bb16",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "76399264-d05f-82c1-9100-d826ff150a2f",
      "link": "f7fe500a-81b7-80df-b20d-523277528530",
      "group": "b90f923e-53be-8d15-8265-674b21058f47",
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "62e073a6-215d-8bcf-9d1e-27680f80ad8c",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0214",
    "permissive": "0.9991",
    "conservative": "0.9777"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9955",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "5.400000",
  "snapshot_seq": 11259,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0b6d9-01be-7657-af6d-82dbe536ef37"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0b6d9-01a8-70b8-a79b-41fab2e95d3c"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "1edece95-764b-853e-a974-ddc5a626f1a7"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "5.400000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}