Claim

Canada has 88 naval ships.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 26204

Referenced 141 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 80, shared 60. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Geopolitics · 401bf0a0

Assessment

Contradicted

Score: 0.1780 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

0 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 2 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:1532a6ab-c41a-8bf6-a177-af3b66abe3a7

Not yet independently audited; some evidence was recorded by an anonymous contributor.Evidence reviewed so far contradicts this claim, but only 0 of 4 review checks have been done.A quoted passage from en.wikipedia.org was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: The Royal Canadian Navy's infobox lists 42 ships; 25 commissioned warships in the body. weight 1.530000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.1780 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Contradicted · Review checks: 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 2 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:d2fae851052aef0228f0fdbc00245fee7bc370f9fdef92d0d6a0788b03b1086c

Last changed at entry seq 26269; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
52f7cb15 contradict	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.530000	1.530000
c54e7ce1 qualify	relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.126000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + -1.530000 (the counted weights) = -1.530000 → probability 0.1780

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.2552 to 0.1204, a spread of 0.1348.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“CANADA HAS A CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF U.S. MILITARY ACTION. Canada vs U.S. comparison: personnel 68,000 vs 1,328,000; fighter jets...” · 7 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

None.

Evidence against

The Royal Canadian Navy's infobox lists 42 ships; 25 commissioned warships in the body.

From Wikipedia: Royal Canadian Navy Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

42 ships (25 commissioned warships) vs meme's 88

Qualifications

Canada is buying up to 88 F-35 fighter jets, the likely source of the meme's 88.

From Europesays: US personnel and USAF combat aircraft figures Read 2026-09-29 Relevance WEAK Steps 2 Counted

The '88' was likely pasted from Canada's planned 88 F-35s

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contradicted. The main contradiction is: The Royal Canadian Navy's infobox lists 42 ships; 25 commissioned warships in the body. dc5ebc77

Qualifier: Canada is buying up to 88 F-35 fighter jets, the likely source of the meme's 88. f28c503c

Review checks: 0 of 4. coverage:1532a6ab-c41a-8bf6-a177-af3b66abe3a7

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
26204	APPENDED
26205	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
26266	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 401bf0a0 (accepted)
26268	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 401bf0a0 (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "1532a6ab-c41a-8bf6-a177-af3b66abe3a7",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "1df501f1-689d-85c7-847d-35cd52f7cb15",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "034fb7b9-27af-8139-bc46-4b79dc5ebc77",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "1.530000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.530000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "f4033258-12e5-824f-8346-2a1fc54e7ce1",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "433f95d1-01e8-8d07-aea5-9269f28c503c",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.126000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 2
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1348",
    "permissive": "0.1204",
    "conservative": "0.2552"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.1780",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "-1.530000",
  "snapshot_seq": 26269,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 0,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "CONTRADICTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 1,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "-1.530000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}