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Claim

The reported associations between ancient Maya features and modern forest structure were strongest at spatial scales of approximately 100 to 300 metres, and their wider geographic extent remains untested.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 21562 · qualifiers {"location":"Study area in northern Belize."}

29 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 94 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 72, shared 21. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Archaeology · 1efd24fe Wildlife · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted · 2 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 2 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:160cc39d-1918-85d5-b4bd-84c3a883f23e

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 0 of 4 review checks have been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Secondary coverage reports strongest results at 100–300 metres and cautions that wider Maya Forest generalization requires larger study areas. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports strongest results at 100–300 metres and says a larger study is needed to test extension across the wider Maya Forest.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 2 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:b21cbd8c17251b930527cfae7f3c8340ae47b7c44f250c0af95a49611db82c26

Last changed at entry seq 25976; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
c8f10d8b support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 2.000000
55a19249 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept c8f10d8b)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.000000 (the counted weights) = 2.000000 → probability 0.8808

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8022 to 0.9309, a spread of 0.1287.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
8b02f399c8f10d8b

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Secondary coverage reports strongest results at 100–300 metres and cautions that wider Maya Forest generalization requires larger study areas. 2a68285e

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 8b02f399

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 574fe262

Review checks: 0 of 4. coverage:160cc39d-1918-85d5-b4bd-84c3a883f23e

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
21562APPENDED
21563ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
21576LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
24437TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "160cc39d-1918-85d5-b4bd-84c3a883f23e",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "6fae5c8d-4319-8ebd-be8c-9502c8f10d8b",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0273baa4-5880-8bbf-b4cb-6fc82a68285e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "6fae5c8d-4319-8ebd-be8c-9502c8f10d8b",
      "link": "bde1a616-0ead-8427-9ce9-628c55a19249",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a5a31c4b-db6b-8432-8270-079c8b02f399",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1287",
    "permissive": "0.9309",
    "conservative": "0.8022"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8808",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25976,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}