Claim

Excavated artifacts indicate that Alekseevka-Sargary people predominantly inhabited Semiyarka, while Cherkaskul-like items suggest trade with other local groups.

Type HISTORICAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 13778

Referenced 123 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 83, shared 38. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Archaeology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:2c87a142-128b-8e3a-8e27-497ba873f17f

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from cambridge.org was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The Antiquity study directly reports the dominant Alekseevka-Sargary material and minority Cherkaskul finds indicating interaction with western Siberian groups. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly says Alekseevka-Sargary artifacts predominate and Cherkaskul-like items indicate likely trade with local peoples.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:0463a38504a0902165293f304b76cba44135c2f7fd503e35199c70d6bac96928

Last changed at entry seq 17760; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
e4bed279 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation ARCHAEOLOGICAL 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept eb6b2059)
adc6bd2b support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
eb6b2059 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation ARCHAEOLOGICAL 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.600000 (the counted weights) = 3.600000 → probability 0.9734

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9255 to 0.9908, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Excavated artifacts indicate that Alekseevka-Sargary people predominantly inhabited Semiyarka, while Cherkaskul-like items suggest trade with other local...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“Excavated artifacts indicate that Alekseevka-Sargary people predominantly inhabited Semiyarka, while Cherkaskul-like items suggest trade with other local...” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

UCL reports that Alekseevka-Sargary artifacts predominate and Cherkaskul-like items indicate likely trade with local peoples.

From Unearthing the City of Seven Ravines Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The excerpt directly says Alekseevka-Sargary artifacts predominate and Cherkaskul-like items indicate likely trade with local peoples.

From Unearthing the City of Seven Ravines Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage directly supports both the predominant occupation and likely trade components.
The Antiquity study directly reports the dominant Alekseevka-Sargary material and minority Cherkaskul finds indicating interaction with western Siberian groups.

From A major city of the Kazakh Steppe? Investigating Semiyarka’s Bronze Age legacy Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary archaeological survey; distinct Bronze Age Central Asian archaeology topic.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
2ab76068		eb6b2059

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	adc6bd2b

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The Antiquity study directly reports the dominant Alekseevka-Sargary material and minority Cherkaskul finds indicating interaction with western Siberian groups. 7bd390f1

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 2ab76068

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 633a6383

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:2c87a142-128b-8e3a-8e27-497ba873f17f

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
13778	APPENDED
13779	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
13784	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13814	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17759	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "2c87a142-128b-8e3a-8e27-497ba873f17f",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "e3e57b34-cca5-829e-951f-0abbeb6b2059",
      "link": "727d9f4c-16e5-8fee-bdd4-f2eae4bed279",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "331d17c7-40a7-8e80-8e6f-bdcd2ab76068",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "ARCHAEOLOGICAL",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "9252912a-69cb-8c98-b09f-2809adc6bd2b",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d9a3574d-cd77-8e50-ab88-3f5c7bd390f1",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "e3e57b34-cca5-829e-951f-0abbeb6b2059",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "7eae9031-f40e-820a-a3c2-d9566e82cc4a",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "ARCHAEOLOGICAL",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.9908",
    "conservative": "0.9255"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "HISTORICAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 17760,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "9252912a-69cb-8c98-b09f-2809adc6bd2b"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}