Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Climate · 1efd24fe Earth science · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: Proxy records show stronger western than eastern late-Holocene cooling, while TraCE-21k models do not reproduce the zonal asymmetry. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly supports stronger western cooling, increased zonal SST gradient, and the model mismatch.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “Alkenone and planktonic-foraminifera proxy records indicate that mid- to late-Holocene summertime cooling in the mid-latitude North Atlantic was stronger in...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• Proxy records show stronger western than eastern late-Holocene cooling, while TraCE-21k models do not reproduce the zonal asymmetry.

  From Middle to late Holocene cooling and increased zonal asymmetry in the mid-latitude North Atlantic Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The quoted passage directly supports stronger western cooling, increased zonal SST gradient, and the model mismatch.

  From Middle to late Holocene cooling and increased zonal asymmetry in the mid-latitude North Atlantic Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

• The primary article specifies a late-Holocene last-5,000-year interval and interprets alkenone-derived cooling as a summertime SST-gradient change.

  From Middle to late Holocene cooling and increased zonal asymmetry in the mid-latitude North Atlantic Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Clarifies time interval and alkenone seasonality.

• The article compares proxy reconstructions with TraCE-21k transient simulations and reports that models do not reproduce the asymmetric cooling.

  From Middle to late Holocene cooling and increased zonal asymmetry in the mid-latitude North Atlantic Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Clarifies the proxy-versus-model nature of the asymmetry test.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
c2b0804d		f11c9c55

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
3a1aef52	NARROWS	9b37a8bf

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	f11c9c55, 2aca4080, 3cdbd44a, 07a48199

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
16883	APPENDED
16884	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
16889	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
16965	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25789	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "2e3329eb-fb75-8017-ae6d-948b9b37a8bf",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "04369893-a7e9-899a-a6a1-582cf11c9c55",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "15518458-7248-846a-aa41-6ff31eb89cf1",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "4b0656cb-50a2-8c00-a551-22152aca4080",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "151035b3-ba7b-88be-97aa-7bd5e7b393be",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
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    },
    {
      "kept": "04369893-a7e9-899a-a6a1-582cf11c9c55",
      "link": "62c26695-a508-83b6-81f5-07693cdbd44a",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "b5647a38-7902-8f1a-a7eb-6ccfc2b0804d",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
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    },
    {
      "link": "8fa1fc5a-a6a3-811a-9a66-fc7007a48199",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "5ccb1505-7aba-8857-95a7-ac772035609f",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
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      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1287",
    "permissive": "0.9309",
    "conservative": "0.8022"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8808",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25790,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "04369893-a7e9-899a-a6a1-582cf11c9c55",
        "4b0656cb-50a2-8c00-a551-22152aca4080",
        "62c26695-a508-83b6-81f5-07693cdbd44a",
        "8fa1fc5a-a6a3-811a-9a66-fc7007a48199"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}