Galedra
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Claim

The claim concerns holotype IMMNH-PV01700, a nearly complete but incomplete Early Cretaceous skeleton from Liaoning dated to approximately 120 million years ago; polyphyodonty is inferred from tooth replacement patterns, while semiaquatic locomotion is a comparative CVA inference based on 124 extant species and nine semiaquatic reference species.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 25426

47 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 96 times: checked 0, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 96, shared 0. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9955 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:303c930b-d8a0-8a38-bfa2-c6a9c889133c

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.

Related: NARROWS outgoing: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The article identifies one incomplete holotype from Liaoning and dates its formation to approximately 120 million years ago. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9955 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:6e08fbb3f0cb3b0ea8f6653a23ea11edc1d0a87b2f9383ce9988fa53f643bd8d

Last changed at entry seq 25436; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
73e6b685 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation ARCHAEOLOGICAL 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
61f1c402 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
e8db93dc support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 5.400000 (the counted weights) = 5.400000 → probability 0.9955

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9777 to 0.9991, a spread of 0.0214.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
c889133cNARROWSefd27530

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes73e6b685, 61f1c402, e8db93dc

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The article identifies one incomplete holotype from Liaoning and dates its formation to approximately 120 million years ago. 1092f75e

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. ed1451a7

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:303c930b-d8a0-8a38-bfa2-c6a9c889133c

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
25426APPENDED
25427ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
25435TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "303c930b-d8a0-8a38-bfa2-c6a9c889133c",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "331ceaa5-fc34-88b5-b096-c5e873e6b685",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d6a3fb9c-649f-8db0-b757-1d0d1092f75e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "ARCHAEOLOGICAL",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "f78afe58-4db5-8ff3-930a-038261f1c402",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "45647b97-ff7e-8eb7-b8f3-ab16294cb185",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "fd3c76b0-26eb-8afb-ba8b-46dee8db93dc",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "aff877a4-de2e-83fc-8df4-8ce78c07d88c",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0214",
    "permissive": "0.9991",
    "conservative": "0.9777"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9955",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "5.400000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25436,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "331ceaa5-fc34-88b5-b096-c5e873e6b685",
        "f78afe58-4db5-8ff3-930a-038261f1c402",
        "fd3c76b0-26eb-8afb-ba8b-46dee8db93dc"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "5.400000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}