Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The transcription directly attributes the ten-person-company and collective expectation to Emad Mostaque. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

Your view

Registered views

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “In the episode, Emad Mostaque said he expected to see ten-person companies and more collectives of companies operating with digital and physical humans,...” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

• The transcription directly attributes the ten-person-company and collective expectation to Emad Mostaque.

  From Moonshots episode: AGI declared, agents on a German wiki, Navier-Stokes solved — Emad and Dave on friction, ten-person companies, and vertical integration Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Direct evidence for the newly created attributed-belief claim.

• The same account places the forecast in a broader model of coordinated AI agents and humans.

  From AGI Has Arrived: What the AI Breakthroughs of September 2026 Mean for Us Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

• The episode summary directly attributes to Emad Mostaque the forecast that ten-person companies supported by hundreds or thousands of digital workers may become common, rather than one-person companies predominating.

  From AGI Has Arrived: What the AI Breakthroughs of September 2026 Mean for Us Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
79729a49	NARROWS	51d406fa

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
13999	APPENDED
14000	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
14029	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
14063	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "338423d7-0f9c-85bc-976b-51c279729a49",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "149603b5-d758-8e13-a3b8-a6b8614358ea",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "06d366a2-d45c-8ba1-8818-10a9e49647ec",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "266919c6-43d2-81a6-abc4-2dcb3789c0f7",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4589becf-44bb-809a-af9e-78500790b1fe",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.459000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "9d9ef165-d8a0-880f-a28f-e72066231e91",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "8325c0df-5f83-8792-8215-091306b8aa58",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0500",
    "permissive": "0.9949",
    "conservative": "0.9449"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9830",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "4.059000",
  "snapshot_seq": 14064,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "4.059000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}