Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Archaeology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract says recalibrated radiocarbon dates place Mizyn figurines among Europe’s earliest post-glacial anthropomorphic images. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly states that recalibrated radiocarbon dates place Mizyn figurines among Europe’s earliest post-Last-Glacial-Maximum anthropomorphic images and that the artefacts suggest an independent Palaeolithic stylistic phenomenon.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “A 2026 study analyzed 18 Mizyn mammoth-ivory figurines and reported that ivory’s natural internal patterns informed engraved geometry, with recalibrated...” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The abstract says recalibrated radiocarbon dates place Mizyn figurines among Europe’s earliest post-glacial anthropomorphic images.

  From Internal structure of Mammoth ivory inspired the design of Mizyn (Ukraine) Upper Palaeolithic figurines Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The quoted passage directly states that recalibrated radiocarbon dates place Mizyn figurines among Europe’s earliest post-Last-Glacial-Maximum anthropomorphic images and that the artefacts suggest an independent Palaeolithic stylistic phenomenon.

  From Internal structure of Mammoth ivory inspired the design of Mizyn (Ukraine) Upper Palaeolithic figurines Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The excerpt explicitly states both historical conclusions.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
83c87e7c		f4c21956

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	f4c21956, 4fa44235

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
23764	APPENDED
23765	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
23778	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24634	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "35647a3e-4455-84aa-a4fa-990917bc1f1e",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "d376f0e4-f6c1-8659-822a-bb4bf4c21956",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d8957a7e-1cee-80bf-8863-e3f311fb01a9",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "ARCHAEOLOGICAL",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "d376f0e4-f6c1-8659-822a-bb4bf4c21956",
      "link": "f36ce092-5091-83e9-8240-2b214fa44235",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "83db03b2-dac5-8e1d-a3b2-f6c983c87e7c",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "HISTORICAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25696,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "d376f0e4-f6c1-8659-822a-bb4bf4c21956",
        "f36ce092-5091-83e9-8240-2b214fa44235"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}