Claim

The star S301 near Sagittarius A* has an 8.7-year orbit and reaches a peak orbital speed of about 25,000 kilometres per second.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 18273

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 114 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 69, shared 43. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe Physics · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9820 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:3585f96c-ab38-82a7-8ff8-742a8125e255

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The Nature paper reports S301’s 8.7-year orbit and approximately 25,000-kilometre-per-second peak speed. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly reports S301’s 8.7-year orbit and peak velocity of 25,000 kilometres per second.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9820 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:8eec9b2e512a31e3eee53e1194e2dd67dcf6edf043d6f184fef80d868ed0f1e9

Last changed at entry seq 25844; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
37a2714a support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept c1d6cdb8)
c1d6cdb8 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
6a62b484 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 4.000000 (the counted weights) = 4.000000 → probability 0.9820

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9427 to 0.9945, a spread of 0.0518.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“GRAVITY observations identified S301, a faint star on an exceptionally eccentric short-period orbit around Sagittarius A*.” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026
“A 2026 Nature paper reported S301, a fast-orbiting star near Sagittarius A*, and assessed its potential for measuring the black hole’s spin.” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The Nature paper reports S301’s 8.7-year orbit and approximately 25,000-kilometre-per-second peak speed.

From Discovery of a star sensitive to the spin of Sagittarius A* Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary astronomical observation and orbit fit.
The primary study reports S301’s 8.7-year orbit and approximately 25,000-km-per-second pericentre speed.

From Discovery of a star sensitive to the spin of Sagittarius A* Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary orbit result directly supports the existing claim.
The quoted passage directly reports S301’s 8.7-year orbit and peak velocity of 25,000 kilometres per second.

From Discovery of a star sensitive to the spin of Sagittarius A* Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The excerpt states both quantitative values and identifies S301.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
f4f8bae3		c1d6cdb8

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	37a2714a, c1d6cdb8, 6a62b484

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The Nature paper reports S301’s 8.7-year orbit and approximately 25,000-kilometre-per-second peak speed. 3905abf6

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. f4f8bae3

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:3585f96c-ab38-82a7-8ff8-742a8125e255

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
18273	APPENDED
18274	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
18285	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22104	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24694	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "3585f96c-ab38-82a7-8ff8-742a8125e255",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "131c270b-71e0-8a73-85f0-c49fc1d6cdb8",
      "link": "09040e2a-3895-80fc-88a9-5de037a2714a",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d2d139ea-f318-89d4-98d7-c210f4f8bae3",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "131c270b-71e0-8a73-85f0-c49fc1d6cdb8",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4ec809d2-2636-8472-80ab-4b7b3905abf6",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "de4f23b2-0a0b-8486-9950-21db6a62b484",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "8891f527-6a3a-82f9-b6a6-11c6eaba61e2",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0518",
    "permissive": "0.9945",
    "conservative": "0.9427"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9820",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "4.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25844,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "09040e2a-3895-80fc-88a9-5de037a2714a",
        "131c270b-71e0-8a73-85f0-c49fc1d6cdb8",
        "de4f23b2-0a0b-8486-9950-21db6a62b484"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "4.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}