Galedra
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Claim

Asked what the ban would mean in practice, including whether badges would be taken or the outlets barred from the pool, Trump did not specify.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 6026

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 98 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 95, shared 2. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Government · e82bf250 Media · e82bf250

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 3 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 2 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:38767e72-8f3a-8019-848d-d2acb7e66292

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Asked about badges and pool access, Trump gave no practical detail about the ban. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt asks whether badges would be taken or outlets banned from the pool, but Trump responds by asking which ban and discussing his number of bans without specifying those practical measures.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 2 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:0f9deee244caee44739754fb249097e51457551b7593ecdbd4adab34aa2c112c

Last changed at entry seq 11150; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
6ce81979 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
bd576f73 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 6ce81979)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
7cfa5ab76ce81979

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyesf08857d0
opposing search doneyesfd0919a8
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes6ce81979, bd576f73

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Asked about badges and pool access, Trump gave no practical detail about the ban. f762fa9c

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 7cfa5ab7

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. fd0919a8

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:38767e72-8f3a-8019-848d-d2acb7e66292

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
6026APPENDED
6027ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
6280LINK_EVIDENCEby e82bf250 (accepted)
8926TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "38767e72-8f3a-8019-848d-d2acb7e66292",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "34cdd4ad-760f-855c-a38e-491a6ce81979",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "e768d3a8-6420-84e4-a3aa-e345f762fa9c",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "34cdd4ad-760f-855c-a38e-491a6ce81979",
      "link": "3fad84f4-4806-826f-8197-cd0fbd576f73",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "51399990-4fcc-82e7-9c93-9f0c7cfa5ab7",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 11150,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c6b2-893b-7d07-9e54-ba70f08857d0"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c6b2-8927-7333-bcaa-31a5fd0919a8"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "34cdd4ad-760f-855c-a38e-491a6ce81979",
        "3fad84f4-4806-826f-8197-cd0fbd576f73"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}