Claim

Plans for a Lion’s Head harbour lighthouse were prepared in November 1911 to replace a light on a pole.

Type HISTORICAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 12527

Referenced 111 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 69, shared 40. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Modern · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9121 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:3899f538-4b72-8afe-9811-549f0246fbc6

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 0 of 4 review checks have been done.A quoted passage from brucepeninsulapress.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The local historical account dates planning to November 1911 and construction, storm damage, and restoration to 1913–1914. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly states that November 1911 plans replaced a pole light with a lighthouse plan.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.9121 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:bab187bebc8e6c617ead3db49d4612b47624588e2622268a190af2a5be00b448

Last changed at entry seq 12646; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
475fcaeb support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
4e4bb039 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 475fcaeb)
116a6547 support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	0.540000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.340000 (the counted weights) = 2.340000 → probability 0.9121

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8373 to 0.9544, a spread of 0.1171.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Plans for a Lion’s Head harbour lighthouse were prepared in November 1911 to replace a light on a pole.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
“The Lion’s Head lighthouse history records plans prepared in November 1911, construction in 1913, and repair and restoration to its original location in 1914.” · 2 claims · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

The local historical account dates planning to November 1911 and construction, storm damage, and restoration to 1913–1914.

From The Saga of the Lion’s Head Lighthouse Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The passage directly states that November 1911 plans replaced a pole light with a lighthouse plan.

From The Saga of the Lion’s Head Lighthouse Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The date, planning action, and replacement purpose are explicit.
Bruce Peninsula Press independently reports that the original Lion’s Head lighthouse plans dated to 1911.

From Rise Again: Lion’s Head Lighthouse Version 3.0 Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

The source corroborates the existence and date of the original plans, though it does not repeat the November date or pole-light purpose.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
341b456c		475fcaeb

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The local historical account dates planning to November 1911 and construction, storm damage, and restoration to 1913–1914. 58e1cea8

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 341b456c

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. c2998f3e

Review checks: 0 of 4. coverage:3899f538-4b72-8afe-9811-549f0246fbc6

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
12527	APPENDED
12528	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
12537	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
12542	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
12603	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "3899f538-4b72-8afe-9811-549f0246fbc6",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "2e0fa7a7-6f3d-88df-b534-a801475fcaeb",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "475f6a7d-37ac-87ef-8e14-db6958e1cea8",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "2e0fa7a7-6f3d-88df-b534-a801475fcaeb",
      "link": "450c83a0-7a53-8477-b1f7-20a34e4bb039",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d9843407-cf00-83fc-9020-759e341b456c",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "8e198ee4-43b0-8e93-8443-510c116a6547",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d3457791-0294-83b6-bbb3-f062cad713d4",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.540000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1171",
    "permissive": "0.9544",
    "conservative": "0.8373"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "HISTORICAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9121",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.340000",
  "snapshot_seq": 12646,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.340000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}