Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract reports a 136-degree retrograde obliquity from six NIRPS/HARPS transits for GJ 3090 b. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly reports six NIRPS/HARPS transits, a 136-degree obliquity with stated uncertainties, and a retrograde orbit around an M2 dwarf.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “A September 2026 A&A study measured GJ 3090 b’s 3D obliquity at 136° and reported no evidence of a massive outer companion or wide stellar binary.” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The abstract reports a 136-degree retrograde obliquity from six NIRPS/HARPS transits for GJ 3090 b.

  From Upside down: GJ 3090 b the first retrograde exoplanet around an M dwarf detected with NIRPS Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The quoted passage directly reports six NIRPS/HARPS transits, a 136-degree obliquity with stated uncertainties, and a retrograde orbit around an M2 dwarf.

  From Upside down: GJ 3090 b the first retrograde exoplanet around an M dwarf detected with NIRPS Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The excerpt states observations, instruments, numerical result, and planetary/host classification.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
1da9382a		0cf252a6

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	25106a84, 0cf252a6

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
18065	APPENDED
18066	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
18077	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24688	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "3a291a54-f645-8231-ae37-7c52bb65b9a4",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "eaee3eca-09a4-8801-911d-25980cf252a6",
      "link": "8513299e-8f45-89d0-b455-aacd25106a84",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "01110f00-d05c-89ef-8ed7-3d6c1da9382a",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "eaee3eca-09a4-8801-911d-25980cf252a6",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "02c419ce-31d2-8626-8926-08a79e39d992",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1287",
    "permissive": "0.9309",
    "conservative": "0.8022"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8808",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25828,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "8513299e-8f45-89d0-b455-aacd25106a84",
        "eaee3eca-09a4-8801-911d-25980cf252a6"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}