Claim

Across five real circular datasets, the proposed distribution achieved the smallest AIC and BIC values and the largest Kuiper-test p-value among seven compared models.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 22907 · qualifiers {"population":"Five real circular datasets; seven competing models."}

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 81 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 59, shared 21. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Mathematics · 1efd24fe Statistics · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:3dc66394-cfc3-8f2e-a03a-ef2644edf485

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary Scientific Reports abstract reports that across five real circular datasets, the proposed distribution had the smallest AIC and BIC and largest Kuiper-test p-value among seven competing models. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The paper reports smallest AIC and BIC and largest Kuiper-test p-value across five real datasets versus seven competitors.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:3ff89af7d2779a616687d1eadef7065835f5c8be33db235fc5cd4a10c48e565c

Last changed at entry seq 24397; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
e26fbbf6 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
cf90b6cc support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept e44d6622)
e44d6622 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.600000 (the counted weights) = 3.600000 → probability 0.9734

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9255 to 0.9908, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“A 2026 Scientific Reports paper proposed a circular-data distribution built from joined beta-type components and reported better fit metrics than seven...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The paper reports smallest AIC and BIC and largest Kuiper-test p-value across five real datasets versus seven competitors.

From A new family of distributions for circular data Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The supplied passage directly reports smallest AIC and BIC and largest Kuiper-test p-value across five datasets and seven competing models.

From A new family of distributions for circular data Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The excerpt exactly matches the datasets, comparator count, and three model-selection outcomes.
The primary Scientific Reports abstract reports that across five real circular datasets, the proposed distribution had the smallest AIC and BIC and largest Kuiper-test p-value among seven competing models.

From A new family of distributions for circular data Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly states all comparative results and dataset/model counts.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
ab9d2c1f		e44d6622

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	e26fbbf6, cf90b6cc, e44d6622

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary Scientific Reports abstract reports that across five real circular datasets, the proposed distribution had the smallest AIC and BIC and largest Kuiper-test p-value among seven competing models. ec97029e

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. ab9d2c1f

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 6ed6a70f

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:3dc66394-cfc3-8f2e-a03a-ef2644edf485

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
22907	APPENDED
22908	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
22917	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22962	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24396	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "3dc66394-cfc3-8f2e-a03a-ef2644edf485",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "34f3e0b4-5d9b-8b5f-989c-26aee26fbbf6",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "33db1028-8707-8c42-bd48-583dec97029e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "cc4d1c30-a665-8deb-8a6c-864be44d6622",
      "link": "b7da03de-3350-813b-bde4-1b3acf90b6cc",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "26cbc365-16e8-85f7-9d3d-b4abab9d2c1f",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MODEL_OUTPUT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "cc4d1c30-a665-8deb-8a6c-864be44d6622",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d0ef529c-4aff-87ca-bfae-0bb5f65379ca",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.9908",
    "conservative": "0.9255"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24397,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "34f3e0b4-5d9b-8b5f-989c-26aee26fbbf6",
        "b7da03de-3350-813b-bde4-1b3acf90b6cc",
        "cc4d1c30-a665-8deb-8a6c-864be44d6622"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}