Claim

The United States has more than 90 naval ships.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 26208

Referenced 153 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 93, shared 59. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Geopolitics · 401bf0a0

Assessment

Contradicted

Score: 0.0448 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

0 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 0 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 2 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:42192c52-6c86-893c-81ed-40d3b7df47b2

Not yet independently audited; some evidence was recorded by an anonymous contributor.Evidence reviewed so far contradicts this claim, but only 0 of 4 review checks have been done.

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: The U.S. Navy had 290 battle-force ships as of October 1, 2025. weight 1.530000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.0448 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Contradicted · Review checks: 0 of 4 · stability HIGH · 2 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:07c4eaf4c20a4ec50d26d333dbd3a800ad5e56c9d6760862cc5ffae89eae9387

Last changed at entry seq 26265; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
4ebe81c7 contradict	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.530000	1.530000
90d186bc contradict	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.530000	1.530000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + -3.060000 (the counted weights) = -3.060000 → probability 0.0448

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.1051 to 0.0184, a spread of 0.0867.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“CANADA HAS A CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF U.S. MILITARY ACTION. Canada vs U.S. comparison: personnel 68,000 vs 1,328,000; fighter jets...” · 7 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

None.

Evidence against

The U.S. Navy had 290 battle-force ships as of October 1, 2025.

From CRS IF10486: Navy force level (Defense Primer: Naval Forces) Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

290 battle-force ships vs meme's '90+'
The U.S. Navy battle force was 292 ships on June 1, 2026.

From USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker, June 1, 2026 Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contradicted. The main contradiction is: The U.S. Navy had 290 battle-force ships as of October 1, 2025. f5207b25

Review checks: 0 of 4. coverage:42192c52-6c86-893c-81ed-40d3b7df47b2

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
26208	APPENDED
26209	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
26262	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 401bf0a0 (accepted)
26264	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 401bf0a0 (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "42192c52-6c86-893c-81ed-40d3b7df47b2",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "7c0f4e7d-3a6a-87ff-95d3-27284ebe81c7",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d2ad88b5-b416-8fd6-a86f-5ab4f5207b25",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "1.530000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.530000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "cdd9c462-6587-8515-9621-bf0f90d186bc",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "77bd92b6-cdd4-8dfe-8e73-1339896db2ac",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "1.530000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.530000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0867",
    "permissive": "0.0184",
    "conservative": "0.1051"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.0448",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "-3.060000",
  "snapshot_seq": 26265,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 0,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "CONTRADICTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 2,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "-3.060000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}