Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: Independent reporting describes Astra solving ten previously open mathematical and theoretical-computer-science problems that had eluded human mathematicians for decades. weight 0.459000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “Mostaque said that people he knows at OpenAI told him the model was taking down “all sorts of problems that were previously intractable”; the excerpt does...” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
• “Mostaque said that people he knows at OpenAI told him the model was taking down “all sorts of problems that were previously intractable”; the excerpt does...” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

• Mostaque said people he knows at OpenAI told him the system was taking down problems previously considered intractable.

  From Moonshots with Peter Diamandis #287 transcript Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

  Supports the attributed statement but remains hearsay, does not identify the model, and does not enumerate results.

• Independent reporting describes Astra solving ten previously open mathematical and theoretical-computer-science problems that had eluded human mathematicians for decades.

  From OpenAI's Astra Solves Decades-Old Math Problems: A New Era for AI Discovery Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

  The report supports the underlying result, but does not independently verify Mostaque's personal attribution or enumerate the broader set of problems.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
5ba1838a	NARROWS	1918e80b

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
8382	APPENDED
8383	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
10656	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
12892	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "424f1794-955b-8b32-84d4-57335ba1838a",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "9f06d690-6845-8bfd-9568-48402b0ad410",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0a4f1b7f-cb19-87f8-ac1a-ee0d556329c3",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.459000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "d7bf80bf-7961-851b-a2e9-a07ff1329757",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "e9904bd3-8f54-89dc-a8b9-d3c9e55cd08a",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.459000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1120",
    "permissive": "0.7673",
    "conservative": "0.6553"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "TEXTUAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.7146",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "0.918000",
  "snapshot_seq": 12893,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "0.918000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}