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Claim

The Great Wall of China is the only human-made structure visible from space.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 514

Referenced 422 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 330, shared 90. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · d0749c65

Assessment

Contradicted

Score: 0.0033 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

4 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:47c97642-1fc7-8cff-96dd-4f105dbd5c50

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: NASA calls the claim a space-based myth and says the Great Wall generally is not visible to the unaided eye in low Earth orbit. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt says astronauts can see highways, airports, dams, and large vehicles from low Earth orbit, which contradicts the claim that the Great Wall is the only human-made structure visible from space.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.0033 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Contradicted · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability HIGH · 5 sources, 4 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:89a2785bb7cda47f0672b570b98c93ff8bba5b9d3e1ecf7757ce4d66a0d5f03a

Last changed at entry seq 11604; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
6304e892 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
19ba8c50 contradict relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.306000 0.306000
235d38d4 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
ad9ec735 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 235d38d4)
c3b66cf5 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + -5.706000 (the counted weights) = -5.706000 → probability 0.0033

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.0181 to 0.0006, a spread of 0.0175.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

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Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

None.

Evidence against

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
2035f539235d38d4

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes11fdb9f1
opposing search doneyesf9e22343
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes6304e892, c3b66cf5

Summary

Contradicted. The main contradiction is: NASA calls the claim a space-based myth and says the Great Wall generally is not visible to the unaided eye in low Earth orbit. 9bf8c347

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 2035f539

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. f9e22343

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:47c97642-1fc7-8cff-96dd-4f105dbd5c50

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
514APPENDED
515ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
530LINK_EVIDENCEby d0749c65 (accepted)
532LINK_EVIDENCEby d0749c65 (accepted)
8932TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
11453LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
11603LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "47c97642-1fc7-8cff-96dd-4f105dbd5c50",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "27dc0116-4983-8792-9727-54ac6304e892",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "939f5840-999e-89c6-8e2f-75399bf8c347",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "7df600ad-0fce-8bb8-86a6-823819ba8c50",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d9dc6a45-5a8e-8d01-ba81-f75b12b1325f",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "0.306000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.306000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "a5dbf27d-7766-8139-926c-8369235d38d4",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "27954834-d977-8a6f-a776-d1a2edd4af05",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "a5dbf27d-7766-8139-926c-8369235d38d4",
      "link": "c3810b85-e251-86b0-bd2f-cf33ad9ec735",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "1f0f1dc6-72f6-8cba-a377-58182035f539",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "fcaef4af-6d6e-8b94-b85d-9aaec3b66cf5",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "c22cf3ec-6098-865f-841c-d4c9df44ba5b",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0175",
    "permissive": "0.0006",
    "conservative": "0.0181"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.0033",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "-5.706000",
  "snapshot_seq": 11604,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 0,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "CONTRADICTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0b73c-80a7-7d99-b0e4-2fad11fdb9f1"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0b73c-8095-7b8b-8c15-4e93f9e22343"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "27dc0116-4983-8792-9727-54ac6304e892",
        "fcaef4af-6d6e-8b94-b85d-9aaec3b66cf5"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 4,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "-5.706000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 5
}