Claim

During BepiColombo’s 4 September 2024 Mercury flyby at 165 km altitude, the disappearance of energetic protons was associated with magnetic shadowing by the planet.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 19714 · qualifiers {"population":"SIXS observations during BepiColombo’s fourth Mercury flyby on 4 September 2024."}

Referenced 71 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 45, shared 24. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9487 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 6 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:4c0905cd-53d2-85c0-a3f7-bafb7ee6d020

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com and scienmag.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract links proton disappearance to magnetic shadowing during the close Mercury flyby. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports the 4 September 2024 165-km flyby and proton disappearance related to planetary magnetic shadowing.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9487 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:2b53918d5828ed4d7aca86be54e23e068a988b9b10429f19e04b97d2465d81cc

Last changed at entry seq 25998; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
4ad51c5e qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
fa8191e8 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
ae3c8ff8 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept fa8191e8)
bae8bec2 support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.918000	0.918000
4baab24a qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
41b4b7c8 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.918000 (the counted weights) = 2.918000 → probability 0.9487

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8852 to 0.9780, a spread of 0.0928.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“During BepiColombo’s 4 September 2024 Mercury flyby at 165 km altitude, the disappearance of energetic protons was associated with magnetic shadowing by the...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“During BepiColombo’s fourth Mercury flyby at 165 km altitude, SIXS observations found proton disappearance associated with magnetic shadowing and electron...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract links proton disappearance to magnetic shadowing during the close Mercury flyby.

From Planetary shielding and surface precipitation of solar energetic particles during BepiColombo’s close Mercury flyby Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The secondary report corroborates that Mercury’s body and weak magnetic field produced particle dropouts consistent with a shielding or shadowing effect during the BepiColombo encounter.

From BepiColombo Catches Solar Storm Particles Raining on Mercury While Its Magnetosphere Shields the Planet Read 2026-09-29 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

Secondary coverage of the same Nature Astronomy study; corroborating report, not an independent flyby dataset.
The excerpt directly reports the 4 September 2024 165-km flyby and proton disappearance related to planetary magnetic shadowing.

From Planetary shielding and surface precipitation of solar energetic particles during BepiColombo’s close Mercury flyby Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The claim is tied to the fourth Mercury flyby on 4 September 2024, 165 km altitude, using BepiColombo’s SIXS particle observations.

From Planetary shielding and surface precipitation of solar energetic particles during BepiColombo’s close Mercury flyby Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The magnetic-shadowing interpretation specifically concerns disappearing protons; electron dropouts have a separate wide-loss-cone mechanism.

From Planetary shielding and surface precipitation of solar energetic particles during BepiColombo’s close Mercury flyby Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The particle observation occurred during a solar energetic particle event at a weakly magnetized rocky planet.

From Planetary shielding and surface precipitation of solar energetic particles during BepiColombo’s close Mercury flyby Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
fd972186		fa8191e8

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	4ad51c5e, fa8191e8, ae3c8ff8, 4baab24a, 41b4b7c8

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The abstract links proton disappearance to magnetic shadowing during the close Mercury flyby. ad5959c5

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. fd972186

Qualifier: The magnetic-shadowing interpretation specifically concerns disappearing protons; electron dropouts have a separate wide-loss-cone mechanism. 63c44cb9

Qualifier: The claim is tied to the fourth Mercury flyby on 4 September 2024, 165 km altitude, using BepiColombo’s SIXS particle observations. ac0eaf2b

Qualifier: The particle observation occurred during a solar energetic particle event at a weakly magnetized rocky planet. 5a837286

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:4c0905cd-53d2-85c0-a3f7-bafb7ee6d020

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
19714	APPENDED
19715	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
19726	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
19736	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24788	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25997	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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