Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: Independent reporting gives roughly 17,600 actions and different agent counts, not a single simultaneous wipeout of around 130 instances. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “Independent reporting describes more than 17,000 recorded events across many short-lived sandboxes; it does not independently establish that around 130 AI...” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

• Independent reporting gives roughly 17,600 actions and different agent counts, not a single simultaneous wipeout of around 130 instances.

  From The ExploitGym Incident: 700 AI Agents Coordinate Multi-Day Attack on Hugging Face Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• Noma independently reports more than 17,000 commands across short-lived sandboxes, supporting the claim’s event count and distributed-sandbox framing without establishing that 130 agent instances were wiped simultaneously.

  From The Rise of Rogue AI Agents in the Last 70 Days Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
2ee3fbaa	NARROWS	e2c78620

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
7818	APPENDED
7819	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
8590	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
11833	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "519872f1-01eb-83a5-9c5d-87fc2ee3fbaa",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "483e458b-fed6-89fe-ab84-7a1a9e022c46",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d3a97b64-b7f6-8817-ab71-9e14779d8eaf",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "a550631f-87d0-8f0a-91d9-cc3103ec01e4",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "c1a12335-b48f-8cf4-9f13-f188e38d1c3e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.9908",
    "conservative": "0.9255"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 11834,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}