Claim

The United States has more than 1,800 fighter jets.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 26200

Referenced 160 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 100, shared 59. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Geopolitics · 401bf0a0

Assessment

Leans supported

Score: 0.6128 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

0 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 2 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:52436d6a-4c9a-883e-b569-bde3dcd6fbb5

Not yet independently audited; some evidence was recorded by an anonymous contributor.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The U.S. operates 1,791 fighters across all services in 2026 tabulations. weight 0.459000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.6128 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Leans supported · Review checks: 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 2 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:3c4d34f2e47589f28ffddee2bea5ed6fb82a63834f524b593698e13bc4ab62b0

Last changed at entry seq 26261; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
af9d7205 support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.459000	0.459000
e61af934 qualify	relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.126000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 0.459000 (the counted weights) = 0.459000 → probability 0.6128

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.5796 to 0.6449, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“CANADA HAS A CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF U.S. MILITARY ACTION. Canada vs U.S. comparison: personnel 68,000 vs 1,328,000; fighter jets...” · 7 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The U.S. operates 1,791 fighters across all services in 2026 tabulations.

From Envanter Medya: World's largest air forces 2026 Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

1,791 fighters across services; '1,800+' approximately right

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The USAF had about 1,435 combat-capable aircraft at the end of 2025.

From Europesays: US personnel and USAF combat aircraft figures Read 2026-09-29 Relevance WEAK Steps 2 Counted

USAF-only figure is 1,435; counting method changes the total

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Leans supported. The main support is: The U.S. operates 1,791 fighters across all services in 2026 tabulations. c6dbf8c3

Qualifier: The USAF had about 1,435 combat-capable aircraft at the end of 2025. 95496db2

Review checks: 0 of 4. coverage:52436d6a-4c9a-883e-b569-bde3dcd6fbb5

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
26200	APPENDED
26201	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
26258	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 401bf0a0 (accepted)
26260	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 401bf0a0 (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "52436d6a-4c9a-883e-b569-bde3dcd6fbb5",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "16539791-99d9-83b0-8bb4-45b1af9d7205",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0cf2af94-21d8-85a9-9a89-b1cac6dbf8c3",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.459000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "453c3d41-ffe4-86b4-8e27-a09fe61af934",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "7835b2c5-5cc8-8d9c-a569-fd8695496db2",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.126000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 2
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.6449",
    "conservative": "0.5796"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.6128",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "0.459000",
  "snapshot_seq": 26261,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "0.459000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}