Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Business · 1efd24fe Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract reports 40% successful deorbiting from 2010 through 2024 among satellites in non-naturally compliant orbits. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports the 2010–2024 period, the satellite population, and the 40% successful-deorbiting rate.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “Between 2010 and 2024, only 40% of satellites in non-naturally compliant orbits successfully deorbited; a $200,000 per-satellite performance bond was...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The abstract reports 40% successful deorbiting from 2010 through 2024 among satellites in non-naturally compliant orbits.

  From Bonds improve post mission disposal compliance and the sustainability of low Earth orbit Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The abstract directly reports the period, population, and 40% outcome.

• The excerpt directly reports the 2010–2024 period, the satellite population, and the 40% successful-deorbiting rate.

  From Bonds improve post mission disposal compliance and the sustainability of low Earth orbit Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The passage explicitly states all quantitative elements of the claim.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
99d3b8f7		d9beb602

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	79b9d06f, d9beb602

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
15358	APPENDED
15359	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
15370	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15376	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "5e63f019-b19c-8757-9b8d-4c2f7a78723d",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "91beaaa6-4129-85a3-8792-3c65d9beb602",
      "link": "210ab0f9-b949-8037-9a76-12e379b9d06f",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "59ac1e2c-fe87-8ff2-bc4a-8c4e99d3b8f7",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "91beaaa6-4129-85a3-8792-3c65d9beb602",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "454204b1-bd13-8cf0-9d9e-e505c37cb999",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 26016,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "210ab0f9-b949-8037-9a76-12e379b9d06f",
        "91beaaa6-4129-85a3-8792-3c65d9beb602"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}