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Claim

The Great Wall of China is visible from space with the naked eye.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 246

Referenced 224 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 122, shared 100. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · d6193340

Assessment

Contradicted

Score: 0.0028 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

6 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 8 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:6c02104e-b1db-8e2a-af16-74610c1928ca

Not yet independently audited; some evidence was recorded by an anonymous contributor.Evidence points both ways.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Scientific American reports that astronauts Eugene Cernan and Ed Lu said they saw the Great Wall from low orbit, under certain lighting conditions. weight 0.459000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: NASA states that the Great Wall generally is not visible to the unaided eye in low Earth orbit and is not visible from the Moon. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt states that the Great Wall is not visible to the naked eye from orbit, directly contradicting the claim that it is visible with the naked eye from space.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.0028 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Contradicted · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability HIGH · 8 sources, 6 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:3ff59a0fdc631f081deee303fbb159fbd9ca7cfdb364948d89e6366ddace71d6

Last changed at entry seq 11597; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
159d009e contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
99908812 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
8c87afc4 contradict relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 1.080000
03eaa224 support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.153000 0.153000
457f3f0b support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.459000 0.459000
1fc0b11e qualify relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.306000 0.000000 (non directional)
b0523f38 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
285e373d contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept b0523f38)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + -5.868000 (the counted weights) = -5.868000 → probability 0.0028

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.0162 to 0.0005, a spread of 0.0157.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

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Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
414b482fb0523f38

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes113f19d2
opposing search doneyes685a7ff5
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes159d009e

Summary

Contradicted. The main support is: Scientific American reports that astronauts Eugene Cernan and Ed Lu said they had seen the Great Wall from low Earth orbit. 2440c8b5

Against that, contradiction: NASA states that the Great Wall generally is not visible to the unaided eye in low Earth orbit and is not visible from the Moon. 500faa72

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 414b482f

Qualifier: Scientific American reports that any such visibility from low orbit depends on particular lighting conditions. e15aec33

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 685a7ff5

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:6c02104e-b1db-8e2a-af16-74610c1928ca

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
246APPENDED
247ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
256LINK_EVIDENCEby e02a4612 (accepted)
258LINK_EVIDENCEby e02a4612 (accepted)
260LINK_EVIDENCEby e02a4612 (accepted)
262LINK_EVIDENCEby e02a4612 (accepted)
8936TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
11205TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
11392LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
11596LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "6c02104e-b1db-8e2a-af16-74610c1928ca",
  "links": [
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      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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    {
      "link": "6a0c2200-0be9-89e4-ac4b-f6fc457f3f0b",
      "group": null,
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    },
    {
      "link": "9aebd5de-2db7-8f20-8268-17d31fc0b11e",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f9e76b95-48ff-8920-86ec-e992e15aec33",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.306000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
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      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "e05d89f2-aa7c-83a2-8a62-cd3db0523f38",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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      "interpretive_steps": 0
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    {
      "kept": "e05d89f2-aa7c-83a2-8a62-cd3db0523f38",
      "link": "e28d7cad-205b-8db5-9d56-1818285e373d",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
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  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0157",
    "permissive": "0.0005",
    "conservative": "0.0162"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": true,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.0028",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "-5.868000",
  "snapshot_seq": 11597,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "CONTRADICTED",
  "review_checklist": {
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    "opposing_search_done": {
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    "independence_reviewed": {
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  "contradict_groups": 4,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "-5.868000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 8
}