Claim

HD 3167 b's dayside is cooler than the maximum expected for an airless world, providing evidence for an atmosphere.

Type CAUSAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 21241 · qualifiers {"scope":"Inference described in coverage of the 2026 Astrophysical Journal Letters study."}

Referenced 92 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 57, shared 33. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9601 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability LOW

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:6cad71e3-b384-851a-b84e-738008f4a1ae

Not yet independently audited.This assessment depends heavily on modeling choices.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from arxiv.org and phys.org was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Phys.org describes the cooler-than-maximum dayside as evidence for an atmosphere and explains the inference via reflective clouds. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly states that HD 3167 b is cooler than its expected maximum and presents this as strong evidence for an atmosphere.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9601 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability LOW · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:30227092961e65d0bfd930e353bb3730e8ebb7ea272ccc3c270610a7901b1aaa

Last changed at entry seq 25027; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
db9e4b47 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept ef085246)
1eab6b4a support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
ef085246 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000

prior 0.35 → log-odds -0.619039 + 3.800000 (the counted weights) = 3.180961 → probability 0.9601

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8850 to 0.9869, a spread of 0.1019.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“HD 3167 b's dayside is cooler than the maximum expected for an airless world, providing evidence for an atmosphere.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“The 2026 study coverage reports that HD 3167 b is the coolest lava world yet found with evidence of an atmosphere, inferred because its dayside is cooler...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

Phys.org describes the cooler-than-maximum dayside as evidence for an atmosphere and explains the inference via reflective clouds.

From Coolest lava world yet with signs of an atmosphere offers clues to early Earth Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The primary study reports a greater-than-5-sigma deficit relative to a maximally hot bare-rock eclipse and interprets the resulting cooler dayside as best explained by an atmosphere.

From Evidence for an Atmosphere on the Ultra-Short Period super-Earth HD 3167 b Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The passage directly states that HD 3167 b is cooler than its expected maximum and presents this as strong evidence for an atmosphere.

From Coolest lava world yet with signs of an atmosphere offers clues to early Earth Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
213a8a40		ef085246

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	1eab6b4a

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary study reports a greater-than-5-sigma deficit relative to a maximally hot bare-rock eclipse and interprets the resulting cooler dayside as best explained by an atmosphere. 14e1fc73

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 213a8a40

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 84c94bd0

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:6cad71e3-b384-851a-b84e-738008f4a1ae

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
21241	APPENDED
21242	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
21251	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
21259	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23889	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "6cad71e3-b384-851a-b84e-738008f4a1ae",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "f4ab68a1-6e6b-8aa6-a32c-4802ef085246",
      "link": "9add0ba7-0b7b-8e30-8050-2415db9e4b47",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "8e8676ed-66d6-8434-9e25-2ca0213a8a40",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "a9dcf866-76bc-8d51-8bc6-6b791eab6b4a",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "c43ca3d2-9186-855b-9b4a-767714e1fc73",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "f4ab68a1-6e6b-8aa6-a32c-4802ef085246",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "7166121b-db72-801d-87c1-9fb28d47fb65",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.35",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1019",
    "permissive": "0.9869",
    "conservative": "0.8850"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "LOW",
  "claim_type": "CAUSAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9601",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25027,
  "prior_log_odds": "-0.619039",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": true,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "a9dcf866-76bc-8d51-8bc6-6b791eab6b4a"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.180961",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}