Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Earth science · 1efd24fe Climate · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The incubation study measured increased CO2 under oxic multifunctional inoculation and a fivefold methane plus 35% CO2-equivalent increase under anoxic active-layer inoculation. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The packet directly supports increased CO2, fivefold methane production, and the 35% six-month CO2-equivalent increase.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “In 389-day incubations across four permafrost types, multifunctional microbial inocula increased carbon-dioxide production, while active-layer inoculation...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The incubation study measured increased CO2 under oxic multifunctional inoculation and a fivefold methane plus 35% CO2-equivalent increase under anoxic active-layer inoculation.

  From Active layer microbial inocula restore missing functions across thawed permafrost soils Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The packet directly supports increased CO2, fivefold methane production, and the 35% six-month CO2-equivalent increase.

  From Active layer microbial inocula restore missing functions across thawed permafrost soils Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

• The primary report limits the fivefold methane and 35% CO2-equivalent result to palsa permafrost under anoxic conditions, relative to control, and specifies GWP100 for non-fossil methane.

  From Active layer microbial inocula restore missing functions across thawed permafrost soils Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Adds the omitted soil-specific scope, control baseline, and warming-potential conversion qualifier.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
7ea3155b		79815394

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
042f50ff	NARROWS	31a224ac

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	79815394, aeff9d56, 5da1ace9

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
17612	APPENDED
17613	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
17618	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17625	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25809	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "6e402a82-c4c7-84f5-8375-a5d931a224ac",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "0a2b793a-4c49-8014-9b87-9e7579815394",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "6df4e885-573e-8fa7-9a64-e1e30ac5acfb",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "0a2b793a-4c49-8014-9b87-9e7579815394",
      "link": "52350b05-6abb-88de-b449-3c68aeff9d56",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "78f21dd5-a190-886a-b2f5-9fe47ea3155b",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "e01e4ca5-da43-87aa-98d4-89855da1ace9",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4ef8444b-4498-8aab-8b37-eecb84b1d305",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1287",
    "permissive": "0.9309",
    "conservative": "0.8022"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8808",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25810,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "0a2b793a-4c49-8014-9b87-9e7579815394",
        "52350b05-6abb-88de-b449-3c68aeff9d56",
        "e01e4ca5-da43-87aa-98d4-89855da1ace9"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}