Claim

The fitted S301 orbit has eccentricity about 0.982–0.983 and a pericentre distance of approximately 136–142 Schwarzschild radii.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 22090

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 123 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 73, shared 48. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

1 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:6f55dcc7-8b8f-8613-a968-6fd822ad87b7

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports S301’s eccentricity range and 136–142-Schwarzschild-radius pericentre. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The primary paper directly reports the fitted eccentricity and pericentre-distance ranges in the claim.; The excerpt directly reports eccentricities 0.9832 and 0.9821 and pericentres of 136 and 142 Schwarzschild radii.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 3 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:ae8ac6c8226cdc07a4dae5fcc46397764d39548090f8c0a460b80da336b9c5ce

Last changed at entry seq 24890; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
29e2ffb0 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept fac27cc6)
e0d24bf9 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept fac27cc6)
fac27cc6 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.000000 (the counted weights) = 2.000000 → probability 0.8808

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8022 to 0.9309, a spread of 0.1287.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The fitted S301 orbit has eccentricity about 0.982–0.983 and a pericentre distance of approximately 136–142 Schwarzschild radii.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“GRAVITY observations identified S301, a faint star on an exceptionally eccentric short-period orbit around Sagittarius A*.” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary study reports S301’s eccentricity range and 136–142-Schwarzschild-radius pericentre.

From Discovery of a star sensitive to the spin of Sagittarius A* Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Exact fitted-orbit parameters.
The primary paper directly reports the fitted eccentricity and pericentre-distance ranges in the claim.

From Discovery of a star sensitive to the spin of Sagittarius A* Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Exact fitted-orbit parameter passage.
The excerpt directly reports eccentricities 0.9832 and 0.9821 and pericentres of 136 and 142 Schwarzschild radii.

From Discovery of a star sensitive to the spin of Sagittarius A* Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
fa155c43		fac27cc6
f3e8f5fe		fac27cc6

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

1 check by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	29e2ffb0, e0d24bf9, fac27cc6

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary study reports S301’s eccentricity range and 136–142-Schwarzschild-radius pericentre. 0781f4a3

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. fa155c43f3e8f5fe

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:6f55dcc7-8b8f-8613-a968-6fd822ad87b7

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
22090	APPENDED
22091	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
22106	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22285	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24889	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "6f55dcc7-8b8f-8613-a968-6fd822ad87b7",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "f3407030-5048-8d58-bf40-ed9efac27cc6",
      "link": "5e6fb7ab-a052-8852-ba7a-6b6c29e2ffb0",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d05f8dec-0f49-80f1-9000-c345fa155c43",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "f3407030-5048-8d58-bf40-ed9efac27cc6",
      "link": "bfdc37ed-ceac-85d8-acd5-af87e0d24bf9",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "84366e75-697f-88e9-a9a7-2615f3e8f5fe",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "f3407030-5048-8d58-bf40-ed9efac27cc6",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "56e23015-786e-874b-a858-a0750781f4a3",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1287",
    "permissive": "0.9309",
    "conservative": "0.8022"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8808",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24890,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "5e6fb7ab-a052-8852-ba7a-6b6c29e2ffb0",
        "bfdc37ed-ceac-85d8-acd5-af87e0d24bf9",
        "f3407030-5048-8d58-bf40-ed9efac27cc6"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}