Claim

A global analysis estimated that rain-induced effects increase ocean carbon uptake by 13.6% relative to a wind-only calculation.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 18540

Referenced 131 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 83, shared 45. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Climate · 1efd24fe Earth science · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:7448f024-cc59-8f86-b155-ac36bd7f75f6

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary Nature Geoscience study estimates a 13.6% rain-induced increase in ocean carbon uptake relative to a wind-only calculation. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The primary analysis estimates a 13.6% rain-induced increase in ocean carbon uptake relative to wind-only exchange.; The primary Nature Geoscience analysis estimated a 13.6% rain-related increase in ocean CO2 uptake relative to wind-only conditions.; The passage directly reports a 13.6% rain-induced increase in ocean uptake relative to wind-only exchange.; The abstract reports a global high-resolution satellite-data analysis estimating a 13.6% rain-induced increase in ocean uptake relative to wind-only effects.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 5 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:f73122d96bb257d7d405b92c7ede717545991cb36f715efb6ae33f29ca5d6568

Last changed at entry seq 24303; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
1c737246 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept f459ce8e)
f459ce8e support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
36168476 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept f459ce8e)
2675e7ab support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept f459ce8e)
de1dd6b1 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept f459ce8e)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“A global analysis estimated that rain-induced effects increase ocean carbon uptake by 13.6% relative to a wind-only calculation.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A global analysis estimated that rain-induced effects increase ocean carbon uptake by 13.6% relative to a wind-only calculation.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A 2026 global analysis found that rain-induced surface-ocean dilution increases estimated ocean carbon uptake and may explain a substantial omission in...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary analysis estimates a 13.6% rain-induced increase in ocean carbon uptake relative to wind-only exchange.

From Global carbon dioxide flux into the surface ocean intensified by rain-induced dilution Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary global model analysis.
The primary Nature Geoscience study estimates a 13.6% rain-induced increase in ocean carbon uptake relative to a wind-only calculation.

From Global carbon dioxide flux into the surface ocean intensified by rain-induced dilution Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary study evidence.
The primary Nature Geoscience analysis estimated a 13.6% rain-related increase in ocean CO2 uptake relative to wind-only conditions.

From Global carbon dioxide flux into the surface ocean intensified by rain-induced dilution Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Independent primary source passage.
The passage directly reports a 13.6% rain-induced increase in ocean uptake relative to wind-only exchange.

From Global carbon dioxide flux into the surface ocean intensified by rain-induced dilution Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The excerpt explicitly states the quantitative comparison.
The abstract reports a global high-resolution satellite-data analysis estimating a 13.6% rain-induced increase in ocean uptake relative to wind-only effects.

From Global carbon dioxide flux into the surface ocean intensified by rain-induced dilution Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
19a84cba		f459ce8e
bbcfbf75		f459ce8e
783fd3ec		f459ce8e
60cf7974		f459ce8e

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	1c737246, f459ce8e, 36168476, 2675e7ab, de1dd6b1

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary Nature Geoscience study estimates a 13.6% rain-induced increase in ocean carbon uptake relative to a wind-only calculation. 9466d3c6

4 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 19a84cbabbcfbf75783fd3ec60cf7974

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 6cec4021

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:7448f024-cc59-8f86-b155-ac36bd7f75f6

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
18540	APPENDED
18541	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
18552	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
18979	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
19999	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
20768	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24302	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "contested": false,
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  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
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