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Claim

In the reported study of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2022, the establishment of bankruptcy courts was associated with a 9.7% reduction in underinvestment.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 15636 · qualifiers {"location":"China","population":"Chinese A-share listed companies","time_range":"2014-2022","source_edition":"2d73314b-5637-84b9-be46-4acc45b89736"}

26 words; atomic claims are usually under 25

Referenced 121 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 2, viewed 71, shared 46. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Courts · 1efd24fe Business · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:7df40350-7e00-8a3b-8efd-f4da6a6e5f91

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The peer-reviewed study reports a 9.7% reduction in underinvestment after bankruptcy-court establishment in Chinese A-share firms from 2014–2022. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly reports a 9.7% reduction in underinvestment after reform.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:b8ad29f869322b037940efea4939e894e95acc0425ee112dc8e2ea56f46d9e3c

Last changed at entry seq 26040; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
93add1b6 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
f4c5d86e support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
e94d1b0f support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 6ab25c19)
6ab25c19 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.600000 (the counted weights) = 3.600000 → probability 0.9734

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9255 to 0.9908, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
c13810f66ab25c19

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes93add1b6, f4c5d86e, e94d1b0f, 6ab25c19

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The peer-reviewed study reports a 9.7% reduction in underinvestment after bankruptcy-court establishment in Chinese A-share firms from 2014–2022. 32395071

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. c13810f6

Qualifier: The study analyzes Chinese A-share companies from 2014 to 2022 using bankruptcy-court establishment as a quasi-natural experiment. 9fed3472

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 5ca380b6

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:7df40350-7e00-8a3b-8efd-f4da6a6e5f91

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
15636APPENDED
15637ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
15646LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
15650LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
15652TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
16075LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "7df40350-7e00-8a3b-8efd-f4da6a6e5f91",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "a85103f4-f626-83c9-a497-e80193add1b6",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "991c6445-c6d0-8361-a173-58f39fed3472",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "abeff503-5cf0-8441-a769-9accf4c5d86e",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d9181f9e-b579-8f59-b2f2-b77732395071",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "ee002bc5-cb22-828c-8d3b-75ef6ab25c19",
      "link": "c3cb41e5-6184-8cf7-ac26-446be94d1b0f",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0c03deb3-3d2b-854f-8867-7f8cc13810f6",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "ee002bc5-cb22-828c-8d3b-75ef6ab25c19",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "812ef13e-4f6c-8148-978d-4d3425f6e6c6",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.9908",
    "conservative": "0.9255"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 26040,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "a85103f4-f626-83c9-a497-e80193add1b6",
        "abeff503-5cf0-8441-a769-9accf4c5d86e",
        "c3cb41e5-6184-8cf7-ac26-446be94d1b0f",
        "ee002bc5-cb22-828c-8d3b-75ef6ab25c19"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}