Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Wildlife · 1efd24fe Ancient · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports the size of its fossil-occurrence compilation. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly reports 711 fossil occurrences of tree genera from Western and Central Europe across the Cenozoic.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “A fossil-occurrence synthesis and climate-niche analysis examined Cenozoic tree-diversity change in Western and Central Europe.” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The primary study reports the size of its fossil-occurrence compilation.

  From Cenozoic losses of tree diversity constrain climatic adaptation of Western and Central European forests Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Primary dataset description.

• The quoted passage directly reports 711 fossil occurrences of tree genera from Western and Central Europe across the Cenozoic.

  From Cenozoic losses of tree diversity constrain climatic adaptation of Western and Central European forests Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The excerpt states the count, taxonomic unit, geography, and time interval.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

• The 711-occurrence compilation is bounded to 66 Ma–present, named Western/Central European countries, tree genera, and PBDB/literature sources, with explicit Pleistocene stage/interglacial and Holocene WCVP coverage rather than an undifferentiated all-time/all-region sample.

  From Cenozoic losses of tree diversity constrain climatic adaptation of Western and Central European forests Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Records the explicit temporal, geographic, taxonomic, provenance, and time-bin qualifiers.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
75454002		478f54da

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	478f54da, 93a80029, 8cc2dafe

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
19810	APPENDED
19811	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
19828	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24500	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25523	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "8c417544-4a21-8e57-ae8e-936d3eacdb48",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "163c6a29-327e-8b86-b40d-1e66478f54da",
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      "evidence": "a8de9195-135a-8040-8fb0-bbc71e70f376",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "163c6a29-327e-8b86-b40d-1e66478f54da",
      "link": "16dfbc1b-eae6-8c0f-89dc-fc9493a80029",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a90832b9-179c-8962-9d75-199c75454002",
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      "magnitude": "1.800000",
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      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "2c4a3b9f-7314-8738-af81-f7c68cc2dafe",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "6a705560-a183-88e2-9f93-a7ce10c4dbc4",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25524,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
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        "16dfbc1b-eae6-8c0f-89dc-fc9493a80029",
        "2c4a3b9f-7314-8738-af81-f7c68cc2dafe"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}