Claim

An analysis of five gridded surface-temperature datasets found detectable regional warming-rate changes since 1970 in only 4–10% of grid cells, with accelerations and shifts toward warming concentrated mainly at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes rather than a detectable global acceleration.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 17596

38 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablean inference word joins a premise to a conclusion; consider separate claims and an edge

Referenced 99 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 69, shared 28. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Earth science · 1efd24fe Climate · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9863 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

1 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:8ccdf36e-3e65-80de-88a9-7bf5b7587f31

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from environmentjournal.online and nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The study identifies limited, regionally concentrated warming-rate changes across multiple datasets, mostly at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9863 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:b248c722cb506fb981ac9f09fdbb8cae5c45b878c87218263f2ae1c6e45b10f1

Last changed at entry seq 17637; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
067936fa support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
11ce0bef support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation CALCULATION 0.7 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.400000	1.400000
57e15597 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
0fee56c8 support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.080000	1.080000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 4.280000 (the counted weights) = 4.280000 → probability 0.9863

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9524 to 0.9962, a spread of 0.0438.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“An analysis of five gridded surface-temperature datasets found detectable regional warming-rate changes since 1970 in only 4–10% of grid cells, with...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“An analysis of five gridded surface-temperature datasets found detectable regional warming-rate changes since 1970 in only 4–10% of grid cells, with...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The study identifies limited, regionally concentrated warming-rate changes across multiple datasets, mostly at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

From Space-time signatures of surface warming accelerations since 1970 Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
Only 4–10% of grid cells showed at least one detectable warming-rate change across datasets.

From Space-time signatures of surface warming accelerations since 1970 Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
Independent climate coverage corroborates the 4–10% grid-cell estimate and Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude concentration.

From Not all warming is equal: Study maps where and when climate change sped up Read 2026-09-29 Relevance STRONG Steps 0 Counted

Secondary coverage independently reports the headline quantitative and geographic pattern.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The packet supports regionally concentrated warming accelerations mainly at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, but does not include the 4–10% grid-cell result.

From Space-time signatures of surface warming accelerations since 1970 Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The packet supports the regional and latitudinal pattern but does not establish every quantitative clause.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

1 check by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	067936fa, 11ce0bef, 57e15597

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The study identifies limited, regionally concentrated warming-rate changes across multiple datasets, mostly at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. 7c7a33b2

Qualifier: The packet supports regionally concentrated warming accelerations mainly at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, but does not include the 4–10% grid-cell result. 605e2ad1

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:8ccdf36e-3e65-80de-88a9-7bf5b7587f31

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
17596	APPENDED
17597	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
17604	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17606	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17627	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17636	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "links": [
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      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
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  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
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    "permissive": "0.9962",
    "conservative": "0.9524"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9863",
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  "evidence_sum": "4.280000",
  "snapshot_seq": 17637,
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  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
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    "opposing_search_done": {
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    "independence_reviewed": {
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    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      "ok": true
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
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  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}