Claim

Lightning strikes the same location repeatedly, especially tall, pointed, isolated objects.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 358

a comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 144 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 108, shared 35. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Earth science · e554b29d

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9999 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

6 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:91206359-f23e-8d99-b5a7-057023cc2fcd

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage from weather.gov was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: High-speed camera records show the CN Tower struck by 13 flashes within 111.4 minutes during a single storm on 5 September 2014. weight 2.000000 evidence

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9999 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability HIGH · 7 sources, 6 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:7cc7fc345a5f9a4e208475e24b95092e6eaf65ecd07ff5618f3892ab1cd28b51

Last changed at entry seq 11184; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
d6db6cf9 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
46e8afaf support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
83cfa270 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
73476c1f support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.918000	0.918000
520c00f7 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
bfa57448 support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.020000	1.020000
ca2c9b26 qualify	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.510000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 9.338000 (the counted weights) = 9.338000 → probability 0.9999

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9986 to 1.0000, a spread of 0.0014.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Lightning strikes the same location repeatedly, especially tall, pointed, isolated objects.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

The US National Weather Service lists "lightning never strikes the same place twice" under myths and states that lightning often strikes the same place repeatedly, especially tall, pointy, isolated objects, giving the Empire State Building at an average of 23 strikes a year.

From Lightning Myths and Facts Read 2026-09-18 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The National Weather Service states that height, pointy shape and isolation, not metal content, control where lightning strikes, and that tall isolated natural objects are struck many times a year.

From Lightning Myths and Facts Read 2026-09-18 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

Gives the strike-location factors and states tall isolated natural objects are struck many times a year.
Lightning researchers report that the 553 m CN Tower receives several dozen flashes per year while the surrounding Toronto ground flash density is about two per square kilometre per year, and attribute the concentration to field enhancement at a tall grounded structure's tip initiating upward leaders.

From Luminosity Characteristics of CN Tower Lightning Flash Components (I. Sra, A. M. Hussein, P. Liatos, Ryerson University) Read 2026-09-18 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted
High-speed camera records show the CN Tower struck by 13 flashes within 111.4 minutes during a single storm on 5 September 2014.

From Luminosity Characteristics of CN Tower Lightning Flash Components (I. Sra, A. M. Hussein, P. Liatos, Ryerson University) Read 2026-09-18 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Same place struck 13 times in under two hours.
The passage directly states that lightning often strikes the same place repeatedly, especially when it is a tall, pointy, isolated object.

From Lightning Myths and Facts Read 2026-09-18 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The National Weather Service directly states that lightning repeatedly strikes tall, pointy, isolated objects.

From Lightning Myths and Facts Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Official weather-service guidance directly supports the claim.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Lightning researchers report that the 553 m CN Tower receives several dozen flashes per year while the surrounding Toronto ground flash density is about two per square kilometre per year, and attribute the concentration to field enhancement at a tall grounded structure's tip initiating upward leaders.

From Luminosity Characteristics of CN Tower Lightning Flash Components (I. Sra, A. M. Hussein, P. Liatos, Ryerson University) Read 2026-09-18 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

Repetition is concentrated at tall structures, not general: the same paper puts Toronto's ground flash density at about two flashes per square kilometre per year, so an ordinary patch of ground is rarely struck twice. The saying is wrong about lightning, but a given unremarkable spot being hit twice is in fact uncommon.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	288860e7
opposing search done	yes	bd9e4a86
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The passage directly states that lightning often strikes the same place repeatedly, especially when it is a tall, pointy, isolated object. a45495bc

Qualifier: Lightning researchers report that the 553 m CN Tower receives several dozen flashes per year while the surrounding Toronto ground flash density is about two per square kilometre per year, and attribute the concentration to field enhancement at a tall grounded structure's tip initiating upward leaders. 61c096cd

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. bd9e4a86

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:91206359-f23e-8d99-b5a7-057023cc2fcd

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
358	APPENDED
359	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
388	LINK_EVIDENCE	by e554b29d (accepted)
390	LINK_EVIDENCE	by e554b29d (accepted)
392	LINK_EVIDENCE	by e554b29d (accepted)
394	LINK_EVIDENCE	by e554b29d (accepted)
402	LINK_EVIDENCE	by e554b29d (accepted)
9086	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
11183	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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