Galedra
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Claim

Trump named the New York Times and the Washington Post as potential future targets and said the White House would probably stop displaying those papers.

Type TEXTUAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 6022

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 131 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 95, shared 34. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Media · e82bf250

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:94b2aecf-d4f2-8384-8d57-0a70fd9f6b9b

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: AL.com reports Trump named both papers and said they probably would no longer be displayed, while clarifying they were not yet expelled. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt names The New York Times and Washington Post, calls them fake news, and says the White House will probably no longer display those papers.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:1790b095f7e58a5be26c9bd1a0f162057884bdd5893ab6d9e6183f8b25588c16

Last changed at entry seq 11158; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
496b9c9e support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 1691929e)
ec907479 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
1691929e support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.600000 (the counted weights) = 3.600000 → probability 0.9734

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9255 to 0.9908, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
56c0f69e1691929e

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes187574e3
opposing search doneyes6067ee18
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes496b9c9e, 1691929e

Summary

Supported. The main support is: AL.com reports Trump named both papers and said they probably would no longer be displayed, while clarifying they were not yet expelled. 9ee9562e

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 56c0f69e

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 6067ee18

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:94b2aecf-d4f2-8384-8d57-0a70fd9f6b9b

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
6022APPENDED
6023ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
6234LINK_EVIDENCEby e82bf250 (accepted)
8916TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
11157LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "94b2aecf-d4f2-8384-8d57-0a70fd9f6b9b",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "edd70786-549c-8aa3-b321-48841691929e",
      "link": "01557e48-35b4-85f7-bf4e-36cb496b9c9e",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f3d1f8c8-ceb1-8f74-a801-131f56c0f69e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "572c591d-a865-84f8-afd7-0c9eec907479",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a428d09e-4a5a-82a3-8b8c-06419ee9562e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "edd70786-549c-8aa3-b321-48841691929e",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f2554cd1-77c7-87f3-957f-daa10cd5f49b",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.9908",
    "conservative": "0.9255"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "TEXTUAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 11158,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c6b2-890e-78c6-a630-ab04187574e3"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c6b2-88f9-7910-9603-429a6067ee18"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01557e48-35b4-85f7-bf4e-36cb496b9c9e",
        "edd70786-549c-8aa3-b321-48841691929e"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}