Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: Mercor’s own account reports more than 30,000 weekly active contractors worldwide, not 50,000–100,000 individual actors specifically in India and Brazil; it confirms global contracting but contradicts the quoted regional count. weight 0.918000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “Blundin said Mercor then had 50,000 to 100,000 individual actors, described as effectively little companies, in India and around Brazil.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
• “Blundin said Mercor then had 50,000 to 100,000 individual actors, described as effectively little companies, in India and around Brazil.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

None.

Evidence against

• Mercor’s own account reports more than 30,000 weekly active contractors worldwide, not 50,000–100,000 individual actors specifically in India and Brazil; it confirms global contracting but contradicts the quoted regional count.

  From When you go from $2 million a month to $2 million a day Read 2026-09-28 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

  Primary company disclosure is directly relevant to the numerical and geographic scope.

Qualifications

• Independent reporting gives broader global Mercor workforce figures but does not establish Blundin's specific 50,000–100,000 individual-actor count or the India/Brazil geographic attribution.

  From Mercor revenue, valuation & funding Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

  The source is independent context and does not corroborate the exact range or locations.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
9456559b	NARROWS	75f998a0

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	106adab4

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
8458	APPENDED
8459	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
11526	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
12014	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "95f1b96a-4480-8fa2-810c-e3729456559b",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "a8ffa0ec-79ea-8f15-b0c8-8200106adab4",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "01874e2a-8d54-8941-8f53-2bdf1bb53042",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.918000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "c8bf08ab-7c89-8f5e-8405-6dda761792ec",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "6848e0ae-19e4-83b3-aac7-aa81d90c2b10",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1120",
    "permissive": "0.2327",
    "conservative": "0.3447"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.2854",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "-0.918000",
  "snapshot_seq": 12015,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 0,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_CONTRADICTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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        "a8ffa0ec-79ea-8f15-b0c8-8200106adab4"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 1,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "-0.918000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}