Galedra
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Claim

The six-wetland map describes the 2018 epoch, using satellite data spanning 2017–2019.

Type HISTORICAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 23173

Referenced 83 times: checked 0, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 83, shared 0. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 2 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:979dcab4-bc8d-8bbb-926d-e1e4ca4dc6c2

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.

Related: NARROWS outgoing: Leans supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The Nature article identifies the six-wetland map as a 2018 epoch product built from optical and radar satellite data. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 2 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:4daa5af8d152bc787af0340f5007bfa49a3026721868c862f9efd059b16135aa

Last changed at entry seq 23236; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
b865358f support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
0ac0ea48 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.600000 (the counted weights) = 3.600000 → probability 0.9734

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9255 to 0.9908, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

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Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
ca4dc6c2NARROWS7fc5550c

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyesb865358f, 0ac0ea48

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The Nature article identifies the six-wetland map as a 2018 epoch product built from optical and radar satellite data. c18cfd3e

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 3c3a9fa9

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:979dcab4-bc8d-8bbb-926d-e1e4ca4dc6c2

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
23173APPENDED
23174ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
23235TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "979dcab4-bc8d-8bbb-926d-e1e4ca4dc6c2",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "82ede9cf-d083-821f-9a18-6828b865358f",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "72390e02-4337-82fb-81fe-b42fc18cfd3e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "e8c48e24-2dbf-8847-a23f-b2df0ac0ea48",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "834dcf86-8c24-84ca-be71-32a779e26be6",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.9908",
    "conservative": "0.9255"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "HISTORICAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 23236,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "82ede9cf-d083-821f-9a18-6828b865358f",
        "e8c48e24-2dbf-8847-a23f-b2df0ac0ea48"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}