Claim

In the study's analysis, bear conflict is further amplified when an alternative food source fails in the same period as mast production.

Type CAUSAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 21691

Referenced 99 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 72, shared 26. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Wildlife · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Leans supported

Score: 0.7651 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability LOW

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:9fad0958-b016-8d07-a75a-7a488643b961

Not yet independently audited.This assessment depends heavily on modeling choices.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports a sharp conflict increase below a mast threshold and additional amplification when an alternative food source also fails. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly states that bear conflict is further amplified when the alternative food source, indexed by primary productivity, fails alongside mast production.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.7651 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Leans supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability LOW · 3 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:c96f5833a5504f62d6311bb0d1a5587d405d9d012032320a1d1aa864321e8f34

Last changed at entry seq 25241; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
e8932147 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
c9e6633f support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept a212b502)
a212b502 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.35 → log-odds -0.619039 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.180961 → probability 0.7651

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.6550 to 0.8483, a spread of 0.1933.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“An 18-year analysis of five Tohoku prefectures linked Japan's bear-conflict surge to mast failure interacting with failures of an alternative food source.” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary study reports a sharp conflict increase below a mast threshold and additional amplification when an alternative food source also fails.

From Compound food failure on a deteriorated mast system drives Japan’s bear conflict crisis Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly reports amplification during concurrent food-source failure.
The excerpt directly states that bear conflict is further amplified when the alternative food source, indexed by primary productivity, fails alongside mast production.

From Compound food failure on a deteriorated mast system drives Japan’s bear conflict crisis Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage exactly supports the compound-failure relationship.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The amplification finding uses an 18-year five-prefecture dataset and indexes alternative food availability by primary productivity.

From Compound food failure on a deteriorated mast system drives Japan’s bear conflict crisis Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The study-specific geography, time window, and primary-productivity proxy limit the claim’s scope.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
fdfab947		a212b502

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	e8932147, c9e6633f, a212b502

Summary

Leans supported. The main support is: The primary study reports a sharp conflict increase below a mast threshold and additional amplification when an alternative food source also fails. 14a1654b

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. fdfab947

Qualifier: The amplification finding uses an 18-year five-prefecture dataset and indexes alternative food availability by primary productivity. d546d1c4

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. b64f1808

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:9fad0958-b016-8d07-a75a-7a488643b961

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
21691	APPENDED
21692	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
21699	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23926	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24958	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
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    },
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      "group": null,
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  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.35",
  "variants": {
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  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "LOW",
  "claim_type": "CAUSAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.7651",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25241,
  "prior_log_odds": "-0.619039",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": true,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      "ok": true
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.180961",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
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