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Claim

One of the lightest brown dwarfs found in IC 348 by Webb showed signs of a disk.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 13307

Referenced 99 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 53, shared 43. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9963 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:a8747328-a708-899a-849a-3cfbc07cbb73

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from science.nasa.gov was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: NASA reports Webb observations found brown dwarfs as low as twice Jupiter’s mass, and one of the lightest showed signs of a disk. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly states that one of the lightest newfound brown dwarfs showed signs of a disk.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9963 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:5ebf743eac72fae2ef0c389581f6a03e464fd10e3bacd1ca40bc336ac4da38dd

Last changed at entry seq 13661; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
91c20ab8 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept a588bed1)
8c0d403b support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
a588bed1 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 2.000000
33df4f34 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 5.600000 (the counted weights) = 5.600000 → probability 0.9963

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9805 to 0.9993, a spread of 0.0188.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
e9d802daa588bed1

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes91c20ab8, a588bed1, 33df4f34

Summary

Supported. The main support is: SpaceDaily reports infrared excess consistent with warm disk material around the approximately two-Jupiter-mass LRL 2296 brown dwarf. eb889824

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. e9d802da

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 7007ea66

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:a8747328-a708-899a-849a-3cfbc07cbb73

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
13307APPENDED
13308ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
13315LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
13330TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
13336LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
13367LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "a8747328-a708-899a-849a-3cfbc07cbb73",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "d5862940-aee9-8a4c-b126-d105a588bed1",
      "link": "077691d4-3f51-8218-b634-1b6a91c20ab8",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "664bb49b-502b-8c87-a2c3-7198e9d802da",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "8b953ad2-6e32-8caa-97ea-10858c0d403b",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "04fe42de-aabd-834f-9141-48a2eb889824",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "d5862940-aee9-8a4c-b126-d105a588bed1",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "08661bfa-1eb1-8075-9724-ba4e44710799",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "f2f524ac-90a9-81df-a453-eda933df4f34",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "71562ed7-efb7-8897-91c4-a937279849da",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0188",
    "permissive": "0.9993",
    "conservative": "0.9805"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9963",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "5.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 13661,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "077691d4-3f51-8218-b634-1b6a91c20ab8",
        "d5862940-aee9-8a4c-b126-d105a588bed1",
        "f2f524ac-90a9-81df-a453-eda933df4f34"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "5.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}