Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Geopolitics · 401bf0a0

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: U.S. databases show 1,318,300 active-duty personnel as of July 31, 2026. weight 0.459000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “CANADA HAS A CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF U.S. MILITARY ACTION. Canada vs U.S. comparison: personnel 68,000 vs 1,328,000; fighter jets...” · 7 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• U.S. databases show 1,318,300 active-duty personnel as of July 31, 2026.

  From Europesays: US personnel and USAF combat aircraft figures Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

  1,318,300 reported vs meme's 1,328,000 — within 1%

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
26196	APPENDED
26197	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
26256	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 401bf0a0 (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "ad233618-b4d0-81b7-b6cd-052534378c58",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "d1498d61-528d-8601-9cc9-0ef26fef0d12",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "13149263-c506-8d8e-8f5c-2a8467b1adf6",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.459000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.6449",
    "conservative": "0.5796"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.6128",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "0.459000",
  "snapshot_seq": 26257,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "0.459000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 1
}