Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The Chinese Academy of Sciences report places BFD769 in the older Layer 9 dated approximately 167,000–150,000 years ago. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “BFD769 originated from the older Bianfu Cave Layer 9, dated to approximately 167,000–150,000 years ago.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

• The Chinese Academy of Sciences report places BFD769 in the older Layer 9 dated approximately 167,000–150,000 years ago.

  From Denisovan Radius Discovered for First Time in Southwest China Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Independent institutional account of the layer-specific age and specimen assignment.

• Chinese Academy of Sciences reporting directly places BFD769 in Bianfu Cave Layer 9 and gives its approximate 167,000–150,000-year date.

  From Denisovan Radius Discovered for First Time in Southwest China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The report identifies BFD769 as one of the hominin bone fragments confirmed by ZooMS.

  From Denisovan Radius Discovered for First Time in Southwest China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
232bb500	NARROWS	9161dc12

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
14307	APPENDED
14308	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
14325	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
14357	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "adc26b3b-8c61-8c12-a9c1-895d232bb500",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "4f82edd1-a730-86fd-bdb6-5df83852e6ab",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d0f5ae1f-fd83-855b-83ee-eb600e82f008",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "a8aecdd5-a72c-84d8-9905-c4d4365f671a",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "183fcebb-e13d-879e-90ea-72494290f46e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c0d706fc-39f1-8a09-b25a-a7f2e3160581",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "cd7ba783-855f-8742-a8d8-002ecbc9b80c",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.459000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0500",
    "permissive": "0.9949",
    "conservative": "0.9449"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9830",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "4.059000",
  "snapshot_seq": 14358,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "4.059000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}