Claim

OpenAI reported that its AI research agents now produce about 3.1 days of research work for every day a human researcher works.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 699

Referenced 125 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 66, shared 56. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · b63200ce

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9637 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:b551f653-d516-86af-b896-22cfddeccdce

Not yet independently audited.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The excerpt says 3.1 days of machine work for every day human researchers put in themselves. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The Next Web reports OpenAI's figure of 3.1 days of machine work per human day.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9637 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability HIGH · 5 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:1fef3848eb2cd373fdf6d1f65cd95b72875f3d91a27a152ae94af812c328ce90

Last changed at entry seq 11977; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
febfd830 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
5dbc07bb qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
68307227 support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.020000	1.020000
7001200a support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.459000	0.459000
454d1ad2 support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation OTHER 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.102000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept febfd830)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.279000 (the counted weights) = 3.279000 → probability 0.9637

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9085 to 0.9861, a spread of 0.0776.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“OpenAI reported that its AI research agents now produce about 3.1 days of research work for every day a human researcher works.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
“From the Sept 2026 Moonshots podcast episode "AGI Has Arrived": OpenAI's agents solved the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize problem in 88 hours with 10,000...” · 13 claims · 19 September 2026

Evidence for

The Next Web reports OpenAI's figure of 3.1 days of machine work per human day.

From An OpenAI slowdown, argued by the man running research Read 2026-09-19 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted
The excerpt says 3.1 days of machine work for every day human researchers put in themselves.

From An OpenAI slowdown, argued by the man running research Read 2026-09-19 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
OpenAI reported 3.1 equivalent eight-hour agent-workdays per human researcher workday by mid-August 2026, alongside continued human oversight.

From Research acceleration: The view inside OpenAI Read 2026-09-28 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

Directly supports the reported ratio; the metric is agent runtime/workdays, not independently measured tripling of research output.
The report directly records the 3.1-to-1 research-agent productivity figure and attributes it to OpenAI’s internal data, while making clear it is an internal claim rather than an independently audited measurement.

From Emad Mostaque: OpenAI solved a Millennium Prize problem with 10,000 agents in 88 hours Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

Canonical replacement for the merged claim ID returned by search_claims.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The passage matches 3.1 days of machine work per human day, but names neither OpenAI nor research agents.

From An OpenAI slowdown, argued by the man running research Read 2026-09-19 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Ratio matches; reporter and research-agent framing are absent from the passage.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
178e9c18		febfd830

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	74225a3a
opposing search done	yes	173aef27
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	68307227

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The excerpt says 3.1 days of machine work for every day human researchers put in themselves. 645a4099

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 178e9c18

Qualifier: The passage matches 3.1 days of machine work per human day, but names neither OpenAI nor research agents. 5f81d112

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 173aef27

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:b551f653-d516-86af-b896-22cfddeccdce

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
699	APPENDED
700	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
767	LINK_EVIDENCE	by b63200ce (accepted)
6530	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8124	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
10502	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
11976	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
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  "truth_evaluable": true,
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