Claim

NIRPS and HARPS observations of the sub-Neptune GJ 3090 b yielded a 3D orbital obliquity of 136° with an uncertainty of +24°/−18°, indicating a retrograde orbit.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 14617 · qualifiers {"sampling":"Measurement is based on the study's selected transit observations and RM-revolutions modeling; uncertainty is the reported posterior interval."}

26 words; atomic claims are usually under 25

Referenced 82 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 59, shared 22. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe Physics · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9820 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

1 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:b662cab6-6f6a-887c-9881-fd62cbacc5ad

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from arxiv.org was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract directly reports the retrograde orbit, 3D obliquity, and absence of massive outer or wide stellar companions. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage reports a retrograde orbit and 3D obliquity of 136 degrees with plus-24/minus-18-degree uncertainty.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9820 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:860fa5714e02f9bc38a059185e669ddf37b485a2cd978afdccd950abbd83a0ec

Last changed at entry seq 25058; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
2e1d3664 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
310ee1e6 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 2e1d3664)
4d4cd348 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 4.000000 (the counted weights) = 4.000000 → probability 0.9820

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9427 to 0.9945, a spread of 0.0518.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“A 2026 astronomy study using NIRPS and HARPS observations measured the sub-Neptune GJ 3090 b on a retrograde orbit with 3D obliquity 136° (+24°/−18°), and...” · 2 claims · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract directly reports the retrograde orbit, 3D obliquity, and absence of massive outer or wide stellar companions.

From Upside down: GJ 3090 b the first retrograde exoplanet around an M dwarf detected with NIRPS Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly states the measured obliquity and retrograde orbit.
The summary reports the 136-degree obliquity and identifies GJ 3090 b as the first known retrograde planet around an M dwarf.

From Upside down: GJ 3090 b the first retrograde exoplanet around an M dwarf detected with NIRPS Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The summary repeats the reported obliquity and its interpretation.
The passage reports a retrograde orbit and 3D obliquity of 136 degrees with plus-24/minus-18-degree uncertainty.

From Upside down: GJ 3090 b the first retrograde exoplanet around an M dwarf detected with NIRPS Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
4eee1ca0		2e1d3664

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

1 check by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	2e1d3664, 310ee1e6, 4d4cd348

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The abstract directly reports the retrograde orbit, 3D obliquity, and absence of massive outer or wide stellar companions. ee4f614a

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 4eee1ca0

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:b662cab6-6f6a-887c-9881-fd62cbacc5ad

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
14617	APPENDED
14618	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
14629	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
14633	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25057	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "b662cab6-6f6a-887c-9881-fd62cbacc5ad",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "15980bb3-fca3-890d-9e89-98162e1d3664",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "15980bb3-fca3-890d-9e89-98162e1d3664",
      "link": "91fbe6a0-c741-8210-8871-2a31310ee1e6",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "7b5c4aae-3cc2-8f48-a6ed-cd7a4eee1ca0",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "f8a2e9d4-1d33-819f-a79d-445c4d4cd348",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "1ef72261-c4d3-8ac3-927d-c2e4bcf824f6",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0518",
    "permissive": "0.9945",
    "conservative": "0.9427"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9820",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "4.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25058,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "4.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}