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Claim

Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Sundar Pichai and Michael Dell are on the announced guest list for the Xi Jinping state dinner.

Type HISTORICAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 5720

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 149 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 108, shared 39. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Geopolitics · e82bf250 Business · e82bf250

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 2 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:bf76c3bf-897e-81bd-aa07-cff7f9c0cd2a

Not yet independently audited.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The excerpt supports that Jeff Bezos was among executives scheduled to attend, but it provides no support for Musk, Pichai, or Dell. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The Associated Press reported Jeff Bezos among executives scheduled to attend the state dinner.

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 4 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:4585058f9b78675ca89b814e90e0fe30b9e61ee0789ff1207e525c9d9d69205d

Last changed at entry seq 10832; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
1ce5c93d qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
fbe261d4 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.530000 0.000000 (non directional)
716b4ceb support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
ffe76ebf support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.918000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 716b4ceb)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
46f106ae716b4ceb

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

1 check by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes39f8ad53
opposing search doneyesd8abfc95
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The excerpt supports that Jeff Bezos was among executives scheduled to attend, but it provides no support for Musk, Pichai, or Dell. 372c6a71

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 46f106ae

Qualifier: The passage confirms Jeff Bezos is scheduled to attend a state dinner, but names no Musk, Pichai, Dell, or Xi Jinping. 62624dba

Qualifier: The counted passage identifies Bezos as scheduled but does not establish that Musk, Pichai, or Dell were on the announced guest list. 62fa9a32

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. d8abfc95

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:bf76c3bf-897e-81bd-aa07-cff7f9c0cd2a

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
5720APPENDED
5721ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
5864LINK_EVIDENCEby e82bf250 (accepted)
6674TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8314TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
9068TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "bf76c3bf-897e-81bd-aa07-cff7f9c0cd2a",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "3705f211-29e2-8ed9-98fa-cd7a1ce5c93d",
      "group": null,
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      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "7d7cb26e-cfe8-8815-83ac-dcc9fbe261d4",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "8abde403-ad16-813e-97f5-8f8c62fa9a32",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.530000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
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      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "aa187aea-d0c3-8c2c-b852-dc3d716b4ceb",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "b5a14166-dded-8adb-9da6-0029372c6a71",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
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      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
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      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "aa187aea-d0c3-8c2c-b852-dc3d716b4ceb",
      "link": "f1cc77ee-70c5-8da9-b223-e9d9ffe76ebf",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "18d73f69-cb83-8fda-bc2e-7e6a46f106ae",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "HISTORICAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 10832,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.50",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c6ae-bb34-72e5-88b7-b82139f8ad53"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c6ae-bb1c-7193-b302-2214d8abfc95"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}