Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Media · 1efd24fe AI · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The Nature study assembled 70 preregistered US survey experiments with 469 effects and 119,330 participants. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly reports 70 preregistered US survey experiments, 469 experimental effects, and 119,330 participants.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

Your view

Registered views

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “A Nature study evaluated LLM predictions of social-science experiment results and found strong correlations with observed effects but systematic...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The Nature study assembled 70 preregistered US survey experiments with 469 effects and 119,330 participants.

  From Large language models can predict the results of social science experiments Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Primary study design description.

• The quoted passage directly reports 70 preregistered US survey experiments, 469 experimental effects, and 119,330 participants.

  From Large language models can predict the results of social science experiments Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The excerpt states all three quantitative archive details.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

• The counted passage establishes the archive composition and US setting but omits the LLM-prediction evaluation purpose and 2026 timing.

  From Large language models can predict the results of social science experiments Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

  The passage supports the archive counts and jurisdiction but is narrower on study purpose and date.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
311a04d6		5d2cfbff

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	7ce532da, 60c338f1, 5d2cfbff

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
18338	APPENDED
18339	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
18350	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24467	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25423	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "c15f8a6f-1c64-8b82-abc7-6106dcd80767",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "0c34e9d1-63e7-84c8-877c-6d3b7ce532da",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "dc9df52b-fbfb-8116-bb1b-8e8aa6a371bc",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "f88fc2e9-6d65-8116-865b-c82b5d2cfbff",
      "link": "95e08efa-503f-89ad-b6ed-787b60c338f1",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "54c8e3bd-d11f-8b8b-8e41-7352311a04d6",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "f88fc2e9-6d65-8116-865b-c82b5d2cfbff",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "55acaaf0-c154-8495-85f1-7e75841a37a6",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25424,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "0c34e9d1-63e7-84c8-877c-6d3b7ce532da",
        "95e08efa-503f-89ad-b6ed-787b60c338f1",
        "f88fc2e9-6d65-8116-865b-c82b5d2cfbff"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}