Galedra
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Claim

Brackenridge prohibits cycling on the Market Street pedestrian mall on Saturday daytimes during the December market season.

Type TEXTUAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 123

Referenced 111 times: checked 0, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 109, shared 2. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Legislation · d6193340

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 3 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 2 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:c885fc6c-8b84-81cb-8444-78f8f5f23046

Not yet independently audited; some evidence was recorded by an anonymous contributor.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Motion 14 prohibits cycling only on the Market Street mall on Saturday daytimes in the December market season; bicycles may be walked. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: Cycling is prohibited on the Market Street pedestrian mall between 10:00 and 18:00 on Saturdays during the December market season.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 2 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:2c7738f74407acdd7de9c68a25ae3b51dde04cfacc837f0748a4c7ecf6776058

Last changed at entry seq 10865; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
6bb1a758 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept e3532e48)
e3532e48 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

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Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
d4c66175e3532e48

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyesf3903260
opposing search doneyes39c07756
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes6bb1a758, e3532e48

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Motion 14 prohibits cycling only on the Market Street mall on Saturday daytimes in the December market season; bicycles may be walked. f20d06bd

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. d4c66175

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 39c07756

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:c885fc6c-8b84-81cb-8444-78f8f5f23046

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
123APPENDED
124ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
131LINK_EVIDENCEby d9c074e8 (accepted)
7106TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "c885fc6c-8b84-81cb-8444-78f8f5f23046",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "bd021952-24ff-8fcd-8a61-62d1e3532e48",
      "link": "7b4b8153-5d47-834a-aeab-4b3f6bb1a758",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d7131118-9273-85e4-aca2-0222d4c66175",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "bd021952-24ff-8fcd-8a61-62d1e3532e48",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f6e05db6-ab08-8b41-8c23-5c7ef20d06bd",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "TEXTUAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 10865,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0b59e-3b9a-74bc-b790-ca8bf3903260"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0b59e-3b8a-76bc-af6e-6f5739c07756"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "7b4b8153-5d47-834a-aeab-4b3f6bb1a758",
        "bd021952-24ff-8fcd-8a61-62d1e3532e48"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}