Claim

In the reported model, a $200,000 per-satellite post-mission-disposal bond reduced annual derelict satellite mass by more than one-third and increased welfare by up to 27%.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 15362 · qualifiers {"location":"Low Earth Orbit","population":"Modelled satellite operators and LEO population","denominator":"Annual derelict satellite mass and modelled welfare"}

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 127 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 76, shared 48. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Business · 1efd24fe Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9843 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:c9d9a62a-f29a-8931-acf3-94a3458e3c1d

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The Nature Communications model reports that a $200,000 per-satellite disposal bond reduces annual derelict-satellite mass by over one-third and raises welfare by up to 27%. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports the $200,000 bond amount, more-than-one-third mass reduction, and up-to-27% welfare increase.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9843 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 5 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:d92352f4d4ac5c9234118af816e91fd973b8d44acd4e83fb615ec557e2cae8ac

Last changed at entry seq 16345; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
cae6c144 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
0508f259 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept c43631e6)
0a5847e9 support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	0.540000
91375d04 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
c43631e6 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 4.140000 (the counted weights) = 4.140000 → probability 0.9843

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9477 to 0.9954, a spread of 0.0477.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“In the reported model, a $200,000 per-satellite post-mission-disposal bond reduced annual derelict satellite mass by more than one-third and increased...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“In the reported model, a $200,000 per-satellite post-mission-disposal bond reduced annual derelict satellite mass by more than one-third and increased...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“Between 2010 and 2024, only 40% of satellites in non-naturally compliant orbits successfully deorbited; a $200,000 per-satellite performance bond was...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract reports modelled effects of a $200,000 bond: more than one-third less derelict mass per year and up to 27% higher welfare.

From Bonds improve post mission disposal compliance and the sustainability of low Earth orbit Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly reports the bond amount and modelled outcomes.
The excerpt directly reports the $200,000 bond amount, more-than-one-third mass reduction, and up-to-27% welfare increase.

From Bonds improve post mission disposal compliance and the sustainability of low Earth orbit Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage explicitly states all quantitative model outputs.
The preprint-index abstract independently reproduces the reported $200,000 bond model outcomes.

From Bonds Improve Post Mission Disposal Compliance and the Sustainability of Low Earth Orbit Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

Secondary abstract reproduction corroborates the primary article; it is not an independent model.
The study abstract directly reports that $200,000 per-satellite bonds reduce annual derelict mass by over one-third and raise welfare by up to 27%.

From Bonds improve post mission disposal compliance and the sustainability of low Earth orbit Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The primary article directly states the bond amount and both modeled outcomes.
The Nature Communications model reports that a $200,000 per-satellite disposal bond reduces annual derelict-satellite mass by over one-third and raises welfare by up to 27%.

From Bonds improve post mission disposal compliance and the sustainability of low Earth orbit Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary article directly matches the bond amount, derelict-mass effect, and welfare estimate.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
68cf8cd4		c43631e6

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	cae6c144, 0508f259, 91375d04, c43631e6

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The Nature Communications model reports that a $200,000 per-satellite disposal bond reduces annual derelict-satellite mass by over one-third and raises welfare by up to 27%. a3f7e864

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 68cf8cd4

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 01e938d6

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:c9d9a62a-f29a-8931-acf3-94a3458e3c1d

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
15362	APPENDED
15363	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
15372	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15378	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15390	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15525	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
16344	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "contested": false,
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