Claim

A boreal-forest analysis found that climate-driven phenological instability produced asymmetric surface-temperature responses: per-unit leaf-area loss warmed more than equivalent leaf-area gain cooled, with median warming roughly 2.0–2.3 times stronger in spring and autumn and about an order of magnitude stronger in winter; summer responses were not directionally robust.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 17837

48 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 108 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 86, shared 21. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Earth science · 1efd24fe Climate · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:cb3331bf-a937-852f-9885-eaa94994b1f2

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract reports 2.0–2.3-fold spring/autumn warming asymmetry, roughly an order of magnitude in winter, and non-robust summer direction. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The packet directly supports the seasonal warming asymmetry ratios and the non-robust summer direction.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 4 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:ff006df19ba1d45c59dbde92e68a4d1e6b03e8658f93f527e7b0c86a74928be6

Last changed at entry seq 24286; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
3e52e362 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept c9fe4b72)
6f784939 qualify	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	0.000000 (non directional)
c9fe4b72 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
59603507 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“A boreal-forest analysis found that climate-driven phenological instability produced asymmetric surface-temperature responses: per-unit leaf-area loss warmed...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The study reports stronger warming from leaf-area loss than cooling from gain, with seasonal asymmetry and non-robust summer direction.

From Phenological fluctuations induce seasonal asymmetric warming in boreal forests Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The packet directly supports the seasonal warming asymmetry ratios and the non-robust summer direction.

From Phenological fluctuations induce seasonal asymmetric warming in boreal forests Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The abstract reports 2.0–2.3-fold spring/autumn warming asymmetry, roughly an order of magnitude in winter, and non-robust summer direction.

From Phenological fluctuations induce seasonal asymmetric warming in boreal forests Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The counted passage gives seasonal per-unit responses for northern ecosystems but omits the study time range and specific sampling population.

From Phenological fluctuations induce seasonal asymmetric warming in boreal forests Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

The quantitative relationship is reported, but the excerpt alone does not establish the full temporal and population scope stated in the claim.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
1a7879d4		c9fe4b72

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	3e52e362, 6f784939, c9fe4b72, 59603507

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The abstract reports 2.0–2.3-fold spring/autumn warming asymmetry, roughly an order of magnitude in winter, and non-robust summer direction. 62e0dfa2

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 1a7879d4

Qualifier: The counted passage gives seasonal per-unit responses for northern ecosystems but omits the study time range and specific sampling population. c29a65f9

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 4b3bfa06

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:cb3331bf-a937-852f-9885-eaa94994b1f2

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
17837	APPENDED
17838	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
17843	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17862	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22330	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24285	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "links": [
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      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
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    },
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      "link": "275ef7d9-b0ec-8f4f-9b9b-76d66f784939",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
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      "direction": "QUALIFY",
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    {
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    {
      "link": "de63469a-7b97-8920-9f7d-34c559603507",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "482dfa07-dd5d-8ee8-b53f-1b0862e0dfa2",
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      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24286,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}